Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Parnu JK Vaprus vs Nomme Utd

Estonia Estonia

Meistriliiga Parnu Rannastaadion, Parnu
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Krasnov I. In: Dacosta O.
Out: Krasnov I.
51' Event
Pajo T.
59'
Matas K.

AI Match Summary

Parnu JK Vaprus in this Meistriliiga matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Parnu JK Vaprus.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Parnu JK Vaprus
15%
Draws
42%
Nomme Utd
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Parnu JK Vaprus

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Nomme Utd at 1.9 per game, Parnu JK Vaprus at 1.5.
  • 43% — that's where the model lands on Parnu JK Vaprus taking it.
  • Regular Meistriliiga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Parnu JK Vaprus Clean Sheet 18%
Nomme Utd Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Parnu JK Vaprus Nomme Utd
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 11 11
Draws 4 1
Losses 15 18
Goals Scored 1.5 1.9
Goals Conceded 1.73 2.2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Meistriliiga
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Nomme Utd
1:0
Sep 2, 2026 Estonian Cup
Nomme Utd vs Parnu JK Vaprus
3:2
May 2, 2026 Meistriliiga
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Nomme Utd
2:3
Mar 14, 2026 Meistriliiga
Nomme Utd vs Parnu JK Vaprus
7:1
Feb 12, 2025 Club Friendly
Parnu JK Vaprus vs Nomme Utd
7:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Parnu JK Vaprus Compare

Top Goalscorer Pajo T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Nomme Utd Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Parnu JK Vaprus 49 / 100
Nomme Utd 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Parnu JK Vaprus Nomme Utd

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Parnu JK Vaprus Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Nomme Utd conceded in 93% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 5.20 goals per match.

Parnu JK Vaprus's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Away concern: Nomme Utd has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Parnu JK Vaprus VS Nomme Utd
2 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Parnu JK Vaprus

(Home)
20 Sept
Flora
3 : 2
Parnu JK Vaprus
16 Sept
Paide Linnameeskond
2 : 0
Parnu JK Vaprus
12 Sept
Levadia
4 : 0
Parnu JK Vaprus
09 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus
3 : 2
Harju JK Laagri
05 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus
1 : 0
Nomme Utd
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Nomme Utd

(Away)
19 Sept
Nomme Utd
1 : 3
Paide Linnameeskond
12 Sept
Nomme Utd
2 : 3
Flora
08 Sept
Kalju
1 : 2
Nomme Utd
05 Sept
Parnu JK Vaprus
1 : 0
Nomme Utd
02 Sept
Nomme Utd
3 : 2
Parnu JK Vaprus
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Levadia 29 22 6 1 81:21 72
2 Flora 29 18 1 10 59:39 55
3 Paide Linnameeskond 29 15 6 8 48:36 51
4 Kalju 29 15 5 9 52:27 50
5 Tammeka Tartu 29 14 2 13 37:47 44
6 Harju JK Laagri 29 11 2 16 40:47 35
7 Parnu JK Vaprus 29 10 4 15 39:57 34
8 Kuressaare 29 8 5 16 31:49 29
9 Nomme Utd 29 9 1 19 47:68 28
10 Narva 29 5 4 20 22:65 19
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga 2027 (Main)