Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Paro vs Thimphu City

Bhutan Bhutan

Premier League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Paro play Thimphu City in the Premier League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Paro averaged 3.65 goals scored and 1.16 conceded. Thimphu City averaged 3.17 goals scored and 1.28 conceded. In past meetings, Paro won 2, Thimphu City won 0, and they drew 3. Their last match on May 14, 2026 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.31 for Paro and 2.13 for Thimphu City. This points to a Paro double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Paro
28%
Draws
33%
Thimphu City
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Paro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Paro picked up more points recently compared to Thimphu City.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.31 vs 2.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 86%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 47%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%
Paro Clean Sheet 10%
Thimphu City Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 82%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paro Thimphu City
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 23 20
Draws 4 5
Losses 4 4
Goals Scored 3.65 3.17
Goals Conceded 1.16 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 3.63 2.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 14, 2026 Premier League
Paro vs Thimphu City
0:0
Oct 20, 2025 Premier League
Thimphu City vs Paro
3:3
Jul 6, 2025 Premier League
Paro vs Thimphu City
2:1
Oct 20, 2024 Premier League
Thimphu City vs Paro
2:2
Jun 16, 2024 Premier League
Paro vs Thimphu City
4:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paro 37 / 100
Thimphu City 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paro Thimphu City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Paro or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.4%
1.39
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Paro attacking → ← attacking Thimphu City

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paro scored in 90% of their last 31 games.

Thimphu City let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Paro went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Thimphu City lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

73 Points in last 5 65
3.63 Goals expected (xG) 2.63
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Paro861131:719
2Thimphu City852119:617
3Transport United850312:1115
4Thimphu FC84139:913
5RTC84138:813
6Tsirang831411:1210
7BFF Academy U19831415:1710
8Drukpa823313:109
9Tensung81253:155
10Ugyen Academy81077:333