Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Pasaia vs Anorga

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Iraeta A.
85'
Iraola I.
85'
Iraola I.

AI Match Summary

Anorga in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Anorga.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Pasaia
20%
Draws
51%
Anorga
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Anorga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Pasaia haven't matched Anorga's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Anorga's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.2%
Pasaia Clean Sheet 17%
Anorga Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pasaia Anorga
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 11
Draws 8 3
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 0.8 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs Anorga
0:1
Jan 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Anorga vs Pasaia
1:0
Mar 2, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Anorga vs Pasaia
1:1
Oct 14, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs Anorga
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pasaia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Anorga Compare

Top Goalscorer Iraeta A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pasaia 15 / 100
Anorga 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pasaia Anorga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Anorga Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Anorga let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Pasaia found the back of the net in 50% of recent matches (30 games).

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Pasaia remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Pasaia VS Anorga
1.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Pasaia

(Home)
09 May
Eibar C
3 : 0
Pasaia
03 May
Pasaia
0 : 1
Anorga
25 Apr
SCD Durango
0 : 0
Pasaia
15 Apr
Pasaia
3 : 2
UD Aretxabaleta
12 Apr
Zamudio
7 : 0
Pasaia
Page 1 of 6

Anorga

(Away)
09 May
Anorga
1 : 2
Real Sociedad C
03 May
Pasaia
0 : 1
Anorga
26 Apr
Anorga
2 : 2
Lagun Onak
18 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 0
Anorga
11 Apr
Anorga
4 : 1
Portugalete
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 34 24 6 4 70:29 78
2 Leioa 34 18 7 9 50:34 61
3 Derio 34 17 7 10 54:40 58
4 Lagun Onak 34 17 6 11 54:34 57
5 Touring KE 34 16 9 9 47:35 57
6 Real Sociedad C 34 17 4 13 48:39 55
7 San Ignacio 34 16 7 11 37:27 55
8 Aurrera de Vitoria 34 16 6 12 42:41 54
9 Alaves C 34 15 8 11 57:40 53
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 13 6 15 56:61 45
11 SCD Durango 34 11 11 12 35:36 44
12 Santurtzi 34 9 12 13 32:45 39
13 Eibar C 34 9 9 16 44:53 36
14 Pasaia 34 9 9 16 26:46 36
15 Anorga 34 11 4 19 37:59 34
16 Zamudio 34 9 6 19 42:59 33
17 Zarautz KE 34 8 6 20 30:60 30
18 SD Deusto 34 6 7 21 26:49 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)