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Pasaia vs Anorga Prediction & H2H Stats

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Iraeta A.
85'
Iraola I.
85'
Iraola I.

AI Match Summary

Anorga in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Anorga.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Pasaia
20%
Draws
40%
Anorga
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Pasaia haven't matched Anorga's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Pasaia's way, sitting at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Pasaia Clean Sheet 12%
Anorga Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pasaia Anorga
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 7 11
Draws 8 3
Losses 16 16
Goals Scored 0.9 1.17
Goals Conceded 1.68 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.09 1.73
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs Anorga
0:1
Jan 4, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Anorga vs Pasaia
1:0
Mar 2, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Anorga vs Pasaia
1:1
Oct 14, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs Anorga
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pasaia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.84
Avg xA / game 0.55

Anorga Compare

Top Goalscorer Iraeta A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.57
Avg xA / game 0.96

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pasaia 35 / 100
Anorga 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pasaia Anorga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Anorga let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Solid form: Pasaia remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Attacking prowess: Pasaia scored in 52% of their last 31 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Pasaia VS Anorga
0.75 Goals Scored 1.57
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.43
63% Over 1.5 86%
50% Over 2.5 71%
25% Over 3.5 29%

Recent Form & Match History

Pasaia

(Home)
27 Sept
San Ignacio
1 : 2
Pasaia
19 Sept
Pasaia
3 : 2
Real Sociedad C
13 Sept
Leioa
1 : 1
Pasaia
05 Sept
Pasaia
0 : 2
SD Erandio
19 Aug
SCD Durango
4 : 1
Pasaia
Page 1 of 7

Anorga

(Away)
09 May
Anorga
1 : 2
Real Sociedad C
03 May
Pasaia
0 : 1
Anorga
26 Apr
Anorga
2 : 2
Lagun Onak
18 Apr
SD Deusto
3 : 0
Anorga
11 Apr
Anorga
4 : 1
Portugalete
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 34 24 6 4 70:29 78
2 Leioa 34 18 7 9 50:34 61
3 Derio 34 17 7 10 54:40 58
4 Lagun Onak 34 17 6 11 54:34 57
5 Touring KE 34 16 9 9 47:35 57
6 Real Sociedad C 34 17 4 13 48:39 55
7 San Ignacio 34 16 7 11 37:27 55
8 Aurrera de Vitoria 34 16 6 12 42:41 54
9 Alaves C 34 15 8 11 57:40 53
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 13 6 15 56:61 45
11 SCD Durango 34 11 11 12 35:36 44
12 Santurtzi 34 9 12 13 32:45 39
13 Eibar C 34 9 9 16 44:53 36
14 Pasaia 34 9 9 16 26:46 36
15 Anorga 34 11 4 19 37:59 34
16 Zamudio 34 9 6 19 42:59 33
17 Zarautz KE 34 8 6 20 30:60 30
18 SD Deusto 34 6 7 21 26:49 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)