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Pasaia vs Bermeo Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera Division - Group 4 2018/2019
Pasaia Logo

Pasaia

1 - 0
FT
Bermeo Logo

Bermeo

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Pasaia in this Tercera Division - Group 4 2018/2019 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pasaia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Pasaia
35%
Draws
15%
Bermeo
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Pasaia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Pasaia lately — more wins on the board than Bermeo.
  • Pasaia are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Regular Tercera Division - Group 4 2018/2019 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Pasaia Clean Sheet 20%
Bermeo Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pasaia Bermeo
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 9 2
Draws 8 9
Losses 15 19
Goals Scored 0.94 0.67
Goals Conceded 1.53 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 9, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs Bermeo
1:0
Oct 20, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Bermeo vs Pasaia
2:0
May 6, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs Bermeo
3:2
Dec 17, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Bermeo vs Pasaia
3:1
Mar 5, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Bermeo vs Pasaia
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pasaia 67 / 100
Bermeo 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pasaia Bermeo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pasaia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Bermeo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Pasaia went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Pasaia's goal record stands at 56% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Pasaia VS -
1.38 Goals Scored 0
1.13 Goals Conceded 0
100% Over 1.5 0%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Pasaia

(Home)
03 Oct
Pasaia
1 : 0
Santurtzi
27 Sept
San Ignacio
1 : 2
Pasaia
19 Sept
Pasaia
3 : 2
Real Sociedad C
13 Sept
Leioa
1 : 1
Pasaia
05 Sept
Pasaia
0 : 2
SD Erandio
Page 1 of 7

Bermeo

(Away)
18 May
Bermeo
1 : 2
Alaves B
11 May
Real Sociedad C
4 : 0
Bermeo
04 May
Bermeo
1 : 1
Balmaseda
27 Apr
Zamudio
0 : 0
Bermeo
18 Apr
Bermeo
3 : 3
SD San Pedro
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 38 26 8 4 65:21 86
2 Sestao 38 22 12 4 74:36 78
3 Alaves B 38 18 12 8 69:44 66
4 San Ignacio 38 17 12 9 66:36 63
5 Balmaseda 38 17 12 9 50:36 63
6 Basconia 38 16 12 10 64:52 60
7 Real Sociedad C 38 16 11 11 71:48 59
8 Somorrostro 38 14 15 9 59:43 57
9 Sodupe 38 11 17 10 49:45 50
10 Pasaia 38 12 13 13 33:46 49
11 Santutxu FC 38 12 12 14 38:48 48
12 Lagun Onak 38 12 12 14 46:46 48
13 Beasain 38 9 19 10 46:40 46
14 Santurtzi 38 10 15 13 33:42 45
15 SD Deusto 38 10 13 15 41:55 43
16 Zamudio 38 10 9 19 42:66 39
17 Amurrio Club 38 8 10 20 30:64 34
18 Ordizia 38 5 16 17 40:72 31
19 SD San Pedro 38 6 11 21 40:69 29
20 Bermeo 38 2 13 23 24:71 19
Promotion - Tercera Division - Play Offs (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2018/2019 (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2018/2019 (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2018/2019 (Main)