Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Pasaia vs Santurtzi

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Our Tip

Match Events

73' Event
De Alba M.

AI Match Summary

Pasaia in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Pasaia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Pasaia
15%
Draws
20%
Santurtzi
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Pasaia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Pasaia lately — more wins on the board than Santurtzi.
  • Win probability leans Pasaia's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Pasaia Clean Sheet 18%
Santurtzi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pasaia Santurtzi
Matches Played 35 32
Wins 11 9
Draws 9 9
Losses 15 14
Goals Scored 1 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.49 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 3, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs Santurtzi
1:0
Apr 2, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs Santurtzi
0:0
Nov 22, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Santurtzi vs Pasaia
1:3
Apr 5, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs Santurtzi
2:3
Nov 24, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Santurtzi vs Pasaia
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pasaia Compare

Top Goalscorer De Alba M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Santurtzi Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pasaia 76 / 100
Santurtzi 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pasaia Santurtzi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pasaia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pasaia found the back of the net in 60% of recent matches (35 games).

Santurtzi's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 32 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Pasaia stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pasaia VS Santurtzi
0.88 Goals Scored 0.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Pasaia

(Home)
03 Oct
Pasaia
1 : 0
Santurtzi
27 Sept
San Ignacio
1 : 2
Pasaia
19 Sept
Pasaia
3 : 2
Real Sociedad C
13 Sept
Leioa
1 : 1
Pasaia
05 Sept
Pasaia
0 : 2
SD Erandio
Page 1 of 7

Santurtzi

(Away)
03 Oct
Pasaia
1 : 0
Santurtzi
27 Sept
Santurtzi
0 : 1
Lagun Onak
20 Sept
Derio
2 : 0
Santurtzi
13 Sept
Santurtzi
2 : 1
SCD Durango
05 Sept
Beasain
2 : 0
Santurtzi
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aurrera de Vitoria 5 4 1 0 10:4 13
2 Derio 5 3 2 0 7:2 11
3 Pasaia 5 3 1 1 7:6 10
4 Leioa 5 2 3 0 12:6 9
5 Real Sociedad C 5 2 2 1 10:8 8
6 Touring KE 5 2 2 1 7:5 8
7 UD Aretxabaleta 5 2 2 1 4:3 8
8 Alaves C 5 2 1 2 11:6 7
9 Lagun Onak 5 2 1 2 4:5 7
10 SCD Durango 5 1 3 1 8:8 6
11 SD Erandio 5 2 0 3 6:6 6
12 San Ignacio 5 1 2 2 8:7 5
13 Eibar C 5 1 2 2 8:8 5
14 Real Union B 5 1 2 2 7:11 5
15 Sodupe 5 1 2 2 4:9 5
16 Beasain 5 1 1 3 3:6 4
17 Santurtzi 5 1 0 4 2:7 3
18 Amurrio Club 5 0 1 4 1:12 1
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 (Play Offs)