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Pasaia vs SCD Durango

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
Arino Yurrebaso G.
59' Event
Lejardi Berrio J.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 game between Pasaia and SCD Durango finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward SCD Durango.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Pasaia
30%
Draws
47%
SCD Durango
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: SCD Durango

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • SCD Durango carry the better recent record into this one.
  • SCD Durango are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Pasaia Clean Sheet 19%
SCD Durango Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pasaia SCD Durango
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 10
Draws 8 8
Losses 15 12
Goals Scored 0.8 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
SCD Durango vs Pasaia
0:0
Dec 20, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs SCD Durango
0:2
May 10, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
SCD Durango vs Pasaia
0:0
Jan 11, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs SCD Durango
3:2
Feb 3, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
SCD Durango vs Pasaia
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pasaia Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

SCD Durango Compare

Top Goalscorer Arino Yurrebaso G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lejardi Berrio J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pasaia 12 / 100
SCD Durango 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pasaia SCD Durango

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SCD Durango Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SCD Durango let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Attacking prowess: Pasaia scored in 50% of their last 30 outings.

Recent resilience: Pasaia stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pasaia VS SCD Durango
1.25 Goals Scored 1
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Pasaia

(Home)
09 May
Eibar C
3 : 0
Pasaia
03 May
Pasaia
0 : 1
Anorga
25 Apr
SCD Durango
0 : 0
Pasaia
15 Apr
Pasaia
3 : 2
UD Aretxabaleta
12 Apr
Zamudio
7 : 0
Pasaia
Page 1 of 6

SCD Durango

(Away)
09 May
SCD Durango
4 : 1
Santurtzi
03 May
Real Sociedad C
4 : 0
SCD Durango
25 Apr
SCD Durango
0 : 0
Pasaia
16 Apr
Lagun Onak
0 : 1
SCD Durango
11 Apr
SCD Durango
1 : 1
SD Deusto
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 34 24 6 4 70:29 78
2 Leioa 34 18 7 9 50:34 61
3 Derio 34 17 7 10 54:40 58
4 Lagun Onak 34 17 6 11 54:34 57
5 Touring KE 34 16 9 9 47:35 57
6 Real Sociedad C 34 17 4 13 48:39 55
7 San Ignacio 34 16 7 11 37:27 55
8 Aurrera de Vitoria 34 16 6 12 42:41 54
9 Alaves C 34 15 8 11 57:40 53
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 13 6 15 56:61 45
11 SCD Durango 34 11 11 12 35:36 44
12 Santurtzi 34 9 12 13 32:45 39
13 Eibar C 34 9 9 16 44:53 36
14 Pasaia 34 9 9 16 26:46 36
15 Anorga 34 11 4 19 37:59 34
16 Zamudio 34 9 6 19 42:59 33
17 Zarautz KE 34 8 6 20 30:60 30
18 SD Deusto 34 6 7 21 26:49 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)