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Pasaia vs SD Erandio

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Our Tip

Match Events

70' Event
90' Event

AI Match Summary

SD Erandio in this Tercera RFEF - Group 4 matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored SD Erandio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

8%
Pasaia
30%
Draws
62%
SD Erandio
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: SD Erandio

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

62% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Pasaia lately — more wins on the board than SD Erandio.
  • SD Erandio are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 4 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors SD Erandio here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 60.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Pasaia Clean Sheet 26%
SD Erandio Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pasaia SD Erandio
Matches Played 35 29
Wins 8 6
Draws 8 5
Losses 19 18
Goals Scored 0.8 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.6 1.69
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 0.78
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs SD Erandio
0:2
Apr 25, 2015 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Pasaia vs SD Erandio
0:3
Dec 7, 2014 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
SD Erandio vs Pasaia
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pasaia 10 / 100
SD Erandio 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pasaia SD Erandio

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SD Erandio Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

SD Erandio has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.33 goals per match.

Pasaia found the back of the net in 49% of recent matches (35 games).

Solid form: Pasaia remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Pasaia VS SD Erandio
1.38 Goals Scored 0.67
0.88 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 33%
38% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Pasaia

(Home)
05 Sept
Pasaia
0 : 2
SD Erandio
19 Aug
SCD Durango
4 : 1
Pasaia
09 May
Eibar C
3 : 0
Pasaia
03 May
Pasaia
0 : 1
Anorga
25 Apr
SCD Durango
0 : 0
Pasaia
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SD Erandio

(Away)
05 Sept
Pasaia
0 : 2
SD Erandio
12 Aug
Santurtzi
0 : 0
SD Erandio
16 May
Amurrio Club
2 : 2
SD Erandio
10 May
SD Erandio
2 : 4
Arenas Getxo
01 May
SD Erandio
1 : 0
Aurrera de Vitoria
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Alaves C 2 1 1 0 4:1 4
2 Sodupe 2 1 1 0 3:1 4
3 Beasain 2 1 1 0 2:0 4
4 Real Sociedad C 2 1 1 0 2:0 4
5 Aurrera de Vitoria 2 1 1 0 3:2 4
6 UD Aretxabaleta 2 1 1 0 1:0 4
7 SD Erandio 2 1 0 1 2:1 3
8 Santurtzi 2 1 0 1 2:3 3
9 Real Union B 2 1 0 1 1:2 3
10 San Ignacio 2 0 2 0 4:4 2
11 Leioa 2 0 2 0 2:2 2
12 Eibar C 2 0 2 0 2:2 2
13 Derio 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
14 SCD Durango 2 0 1 1 4:5 1
15 Touring KE 2 0 1 1 1:2 1
16 Lagun Onak 2 0 1 1 1:3 1
17 Pasaia 2 0 1 1 1:3 1
18 Amurrio Club 2 0 0 2 1:5 0
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 (Play Offs)