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Paterno vs Nissa Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group I 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Alagna F.
41' Event
Palermo M.
45' Event
Terranova P.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 game between Paterno and Nissa finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Nissa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
Paterno
20%
Draws
70%
Nissa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Nissa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Nissa carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Nissa are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Nissa have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Paterno Clean Sheet 10%
Nissa Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paterno Nissa
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 4 17
Draws 5 9
Losses 21 4
Goals Scored 0.67 1.67
Goals Conceded 2.2 0.8
Expected Goals (xG) 0.53 2.48
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Serie D - Group I
Nissa vs Paterno
4:1
Dec 21, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Paterno vs Nissa
0:3
Jan 12, 2025 Serie D - Group I
Nissa vs Paterno
4:1
Sep 15, 2024 Serie D - Group I
Paterno vs Nissa
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paterno Compare

Avg xG / game 0.41
Avg xA / game 0.27

Nissa Compare

Top Goalscorer Alagna F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Palermo M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.25
Avg xA / game 1.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paterno 10 / 100
Nissa 85 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paterno Nissa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nissa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.25 goals per match.

Paterno scored in 47% of their last 30 games.

Nissa let in goals in 50% of their last 30 matches.

Paterno went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Paterno VS Nissa
0.67 Goals Scored 2.63
2.33 Goals Conceded 0.38
83% Over 1.5 75%
67% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Paterno

(Home)
03 May
Nissa
4 : 1
Paterno
26 Apr
Paterno
1 : 3
Castrumfavara
19 Apr
Reggina
2 : 0
Paterno
12 Apr
Paterno
0 : 0
Milazzo
02 Apr
Sambiase
3 : 1
Paterno
Page 1 of 6

Nissa

(Away)
27 Sept
Nissa
0 : 2
Vibonese
20 Sept
Calcio Avola
4 : 2
Nissa
16 Sept
Nissa
2 : 0
Trapani
13 Sept
Licata
1 : 1
Nissa
06 Sept
Nissa
3 : 1
Lamezia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 A.C. Savoia 34 20 9 5 63:29 69
2 Nissa 34 19 10 5 51:27 67
3 Reggina 34 20 6 8 44:23 66
4 Athletic Palermo 34 18 6 10 59:47 60
5 Gelbison 34 17 9 8 44:32 60
6 Sambiase 34 14 11 9 38:30 53
7 Igea Virtus 34 15 13 6 49:36 53
8 Milazzo 34 12 8 14 31:36 44
9 Gela 34 13 5 16 41:44 43
10 Lamezia 34 11 9 14 43:35 42
11 Castrumfavara 34 10 8 16 38:47 38
12 Enna 34 8 12 14 50:53 36
13 Vibonese 34 8 11 15 32:47 35
14 USD Ragusa 34 7 13 14 23:34 34
15 ACR Messina 34 11 13 10 28:33 32
16 AS Acireale 34 7 12 15 37:50 32
17 Sancataldese 34 7 8 19 31:49 29
18 Paterno 34 4 7 23 22:72 19
Promotion - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group I 2025/2026 (Play Out)