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Pathum United vs Aston Villa

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Buendia E.
31' Event
Lindelof V.
43'
Sub
Garnacho A. In: Hemmings G.
Out: Garnacho A.

AI Match Summary

Aston Villa in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aston Villa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Pathum United
20%
Draws
38%
Aston Villa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Pathum United

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Aston Villa haven't matched Pathum United's recent run of results.
  • 42% — that's where the model lands on Pathum United taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Pathum United Clean Sheet 18%
Aston Villa Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pathum United Aston Villa
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 15 13
Draws 7 4
Losses 7 11
Goals Scored 1.43 2
Goals Conceded 0.71 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.43 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.71 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 4, 2026 Club Friendly
Pathum United vs Aston Villa
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pathum United Compare

Top Goalscorer James L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.1
Avg xA / game 0.71

Aston Villa Compare

Top Goalscorer Buendia E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lindelof V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pathum United 41 / 100
Aston Villa 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pathum United Aston Villa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Pathum United scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Aston Villa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 28 matches.

Recent resilience: Pathum United stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pathum United VS Aston Villa
1.43 Goals Scored 2
0.71 Goals Conceded 1.13
57% Over 1.5 75%
43% Over 2.5 75%
14% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Pathum United

(Home)
26 Jul
Pathum United
0 : 3
Buriram United F.C.
12 Jul
Roi Et United
0 : 5
Pathum United
24 May
Pathum United
0 : 1
Port MTI FC
10 May
Pathum United
3 : 0
Prachuap
01 May
Muang Thong Utd
1 : 1
Pathum United
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Aston Villa

(Away)
01 Aug
Liga 1 All-Stars
1 : 3
Aston Villa
28 Jul
Aston Villa
2 : 4
Real Sociedad
25 Jul
FC Porto
2 : 1
Aston Villa
21 Jul
Walsall
0 : 5
Aston Villa
24 May
Manchester City
1 : 2
Aston Villa
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