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Pathum United vs Aston Villa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Buendia E.
31' Event
Lindelof V.
43'
Sub
Garnacho A. In: Hemmings G.
Out: Garnacho A.

AI Match Summary

Aston Villa in this Club Friendly matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Aston Villa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Pathum United
35%
Draws
41%
Aston Villa
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Aston Villa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Pathum United haven't matched Aston Villa's recent run of results.
  • 41% — that's where the model lands on Aston Villa taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Pathum United Clean Sheet 20%
Aston Villa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pathum United Aston Villa
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 12 13
Draws 10 4
Losses 6 11
Goals Scored 1.68 2.04
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 4, 2026 Club Friendly
Pathum United vs Aston Villa
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pathum United Compare

Top Goalscorer James L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Aston Villa Compare

Top Goalscorer Buendia E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lindelof V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pathum United 28 / 100
Aston Villa 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pathum United Aston Villa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aston Villa Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:3
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pathum United found the back of the net in 86% of recent matches (28 games).

Aston Villa let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Pathum United stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pathum United VS Aston Villa
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 1.75
57% Over 1.5 75%
29% Over 2.5 75%
29% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Pathum United

(Home)
10 Oct
Pathum United
1 : 1
Ayutthaya United
20 Sept
Bangkok Utd
3 : 2
Pathum United
17 Sept
Lion City Sailors
1 : 1
Pathum United
12 Sept
Pathum United
3 : 2
Rasisalai United
04 Sept
Pattani
0 : 0
Pathum United
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Aston Villa

(Away)
10 Oct
Aston Villa
2 : 2
Brentford
02 Oct
Sevilla
1 : 3
Aston Villa
19 Sept
Tottenham
2 : 3
Aston Villa
16 Sept
Coventry
1 : 3
Aston Villa
12 Sept
Aston Villa
1 : 2
Nottingham
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