Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Patrocinense vs Democrata SL

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 2 Estadio Pedro Nascimento Alves, Patrocinio
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Fernandinho
50' Event
Marcelo Macola
68' Event
Wellington

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-4, with Democrata SL advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Patrocinense
22%
Draws
60%
Democrata SL
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Democrata SL

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Democrata SL come out ahead of Patrocinense on wins alone.
  • Model gives Democrata SL a 60% chance of winning this.
  • Democrata SL arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Patrocinense, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Patrocinense Clean Sheet 19%
Democrata SL Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Patrocinense Democrata SL
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 8 10
Draws 6 9
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1 1.88
Goals Conceded 0.63 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.63 0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 27, 2025 Mineiro 2
Patrocinense vs Democrata SL
1:1
Jul 5, 2025 Mineiro 2
Democrata SL vs Patrocinense
1:0
Apr 8, 2023 Mineiro
Democrata SL vs Patrocinense
0:0
Mar 12, 2023 Mineiro
Patrocinense vs Democrata SL
2:0
Mar 24, 2013 Mineiro 2
Democrata SL vs Patrocinense
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Patrocinense Compare

Top Goalscorer Luan Carioca
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Democrata SL Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandinho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Marcelo Macola
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Patrocinense 20 / 100
Democrata SL 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Patrocinense Democrata SL

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DSL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Democrata SL conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

Patrocinense's goal record stands at 45% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.20 goals per match.

Solid form: Patrocinense remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Patrocinense VS Democrata SL
1 Goals Scored 1.88
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Patrocinense

(Home)
12 Jul
Mamore
1 : 0
Patrocinense
04 Jul
Patrocinense
0 : 1
Guarani-MG
01 Jul
Caldense
1 : 2
Patrocinense
28 Jun
Patrocinense
0 : 1
Uberaba
25 Jun
Patrocinense
0 : 0
Boa
Page 1 of 6

Democrata SL

(Away)
12 Jul
Aymores
2 : 2
Democrata SL
04 Jul
Democrata SL
5 : 0
Ipatinga
01 Jul
Valeriodoce
1 : 0
Democrata SL
27 Jun
Democrata SL
1 : 0
Coimbra Esporte Clube
24 Jun
Democrata SL
1 : 0
Villa Nova AC
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Uberaba1
Mamore2
Valeriodoce1
Villa Nova AC1
Boa0
Aymores2
Democrata SL-
Patrocinense-
Semi-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Final
TBD-
TBD-