Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Patrocinense vs Democrata SL

Brazil Brazil

Mineiro 2 Estadio Pedro Nascimento Alves, Patrocinio
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Fernandinho
51' Event
Marcelo Macola
68' Event
Wellington

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-1. The second leg ended 1-4.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

17%
Patrocinense
15%
Draws
68%
Democrata SL
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Democrata SL

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Democrata SL come out ahead of Patrocinense on wins alone.
  • Model gives Democrata SL a 68% chance of winning this.
  • Democrata SL arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Democrata SL, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Patrocinense Clean Sheet 16%
Democrata SL Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Patrocinense Democrata SL
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 14
Draws 6 9
Losses 16 7
Goals Scored 0.67 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 Mineiro 2
Democrata SL vs Patrocinense
2:1
Jul 19, 2026 Mineiro 2
Patrocinense vs Democrata SL
1:4
Jul 27, 2025 Mineiro 2
Patrocinense vs Democrata SL
1:1
Jul 5, 2025 Mineiro 2
Democrata SL vs Patrocinense
1:0
Apr 8, 2023 Mineiro
Democrata SL vs Patrocinense
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Patrocinense Compare

Top Goalscorer Luan Carioca
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Democrata SL Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandinho
1 Goals
Assists Leader Marcelo Macola
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Patrocinense 10 / 100
Democrata SL 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Patrocinense Democrata SL

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Democrata SL Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Democrata SL conceded in 67% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Patrocinense found the back of the net in 50% of recent matches (30 games).

Solid form: Patrocinense remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Patrocinense VS Democrata SL
0.75 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Patrocinense

(Home)
25 Jul
Democrata SL
2 : 1
Patrocinense
19 Jul
Patrocinense
1 : 4
Democrata SL
12 Jul
Mamore
1 : 0
Patrocinense
04 Jul
Patrocinense
0 : 1
Guarani-MG
01 Jul
Caldense
1 : 2
Patrocinense
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Democrata SL

(Away)
15 Aug
Democrata SL
1 : 3
Villa Nova AC
12 Aug
Villa Nova AC
0 : 1
Democrata SL
08 Aug
Democrata SL
3 : 1
Mamore
02 Aug
Mamore
1 : 2
Democrata SL
25 Jul
Democrata SL
2 : 1
Patrocinense
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Uberaba 1
Mamore 2
Democrata SL 6
Patrocinense 2
Valeriodoce 1
Villa Nova AC 2
Boa 1
Aymores 3
Semi-finals
Mamore 2
Democrata SL 5
Villa Nova AC 4
Aymores 3
Final
Democrata SL 2
Villa Nova AC 3