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Patuxent vs Northern Virginia

USA USA

USL League Two
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Patuxent play Northern Virginia in the USL League Two. Northern Virginia are favorites here. Recently, Patuxent averaged 0.62 goals scored and 3.62 conceded. Northern Virginia averaged 2.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. In past meetings, Patuxent won 1, Northern Virginia won 4, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jul 6, 2026 ended 8:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Patuxent and 3.19 for Northern Virginia. This points to a Northern Virginia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Patuxent
15%
Draws
73%
Northern Virginia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Northern Virginia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Patuxent picked up more points recently compared to Northern Virginia.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 3.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 88%
Over 1.5 Goals 89%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 48%
Over 4.5 Goals 24%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%
Patuxent Clean Sheet 10%
Northern Virginia Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 80%
Second Half Goal 85%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Patuxent Northern Virginia
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 1 16
Draws 2 5
Losses 26 9
Goals Scored 0.62 2.8
Goals Conceded 3.62 1.8
Expected Goals (xG) 0.13 2.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.75 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 6, 2026 USL League Two
Northern Virginia vs Patuxent
8:0
Jun 3, 2026 USL League Two
Patuxent vs Northern Virginia
0:5
Jun 26, 2025 USL League Two
Patuxent vs Northern Virginia
0:4
Jun 11, 2025 USL League Two
Northern Virginia vs Patuxent
4:1
Jul 13, 2024 USL League Two
Patuxent vs Northern Virginia
5:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Patuxent 13 / 100
Northern Virginia 69 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Patuxent Northern Virginia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Northern Virginia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Northern Virginia & Over 2.5
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +200%
25.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8%
1.35
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Patuxent attacking → ← attacking Northern Virginia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Patuxent scored in 45% of their last 29 games.

Northern Virginia let in goals in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 5.60 goals.

Patuxent went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Northern Virginia lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

5 Points in last 5 53
0.13 Goals expected (xG) 2.63
3.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00