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Stadium Background

Pavia vs Caldiero Terme

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Poesio C.
36' Event
Liberati F.
43' Event
Mauri M.

AI Match Summary

Caldiero Terme in this Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Caldiero Terme.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Pavia
35%
Draws
43%
Caldiero Terme
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Caldiero Terme

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Pavia haven't matched Caldiero Terme's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Pavia Clean Sheet 11%
Caldiero Terme Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pavia Caldiero Terme
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 8 9
Draws 9 12
Losses 11 8
Goals Scored 0.89 1.72
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 6, 2026 Serie D - Group B
Pavia vs Caldiero Terme
1:3
Sep 7, 2025 Serie D - Group B
Caldiero Terme vs Pavia
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pavia Compare

Top Goalscorer Poesio C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Caldiero Terme Compare

Top Goalscorer Liberati F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mauri M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pavia 30 / 100
Caldiero Terme 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pavia Caldiero Terme

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Caldiero Terme Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Caldiero Terme let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.50 goals when they meet.

Pavia scored in 64% of their last 28 games.

Solid form: Pavia remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Pavia VS Caldiero Terme
0.88 Goals Scored 2
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Pavia

(Home)
20 Sept
Sant'Angelo
0 : 0
Pavia
16 Sept
Pavia
0 : 0
Solbiatese
06 Sept
Pavia
0 : 0
Crema
25 Jul
Pavia
0 : 4
AlbinoLeffe
19 Jul
Pisa
6 : 1
Pavia
Page 1 of 6

Caldiero Terme

(Away)
20 Sept
Caldiero Terme
1 : 0
Scanzorosciate
16 Sept
Real Calepina
2 : 2
Caldiero Terme
12 Sept
Caldiero Terme
1 : 1
AC Leon
06 Sept
AC Milan U23
4 : 3
Caldiero Terme
03 May
Caldiero Terme
2 : 2
Varesina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Folgore Caratese 34 19 11 4 58:27 68
2 USD Casatese 34 16 13 5 49:28 61
3 Chievo 34 18 6 10 52:43 60
4 AC Milan U23 34 16 8 10 62:37 56
5 AC Leon 34 14 11 9 44:34 53
6 Brusaporto 34 15 6 13 41:38 51
7 Oltrepo 34 15 8 11 38:36 50
8 Scanzorosciate 34 11 14 9 41:33 47
9 Villa Valle 34 13 8 13 43:46 47
10 Ciserano-Bergamo 34 11 13 10 33:31 46
11 Caldiero Terme 34 10 15 9 50:40 45
12 Real Calepina 34 11 9 14 42:47 42
13 Castellanzese 34 10 11 13 41:39 41
14 Breno 34 9 11 14 39:51 38
15 Pavia 34 9 10 15 36:47 37
16 Varesina 34 7 15 12 38:44 36
17 Sondrio 34 8 7 19 37:64 31
18 Vogherese 34 2 8 24 21:80 -17
Promotion - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group B 2025/2026 (Play Out)