Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Paysandu PA vs Tuna Luso

Brazil Brazil

Paraense Leonidas Sodre de Castro (Curuzu), Belem
Our Tip

Match Events

13'
Iarley Brito
16' Event
Rangel P.
(Penalty)
23'
Amaral

AI Match Summary

This match ends 5-1, with Paysandu PA advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Paysandu PA
39%
Draws
31%
Tuna Luso
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Paysandu PA carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Paysandu PA have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Paysandu PA, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 96%
Over 1.5 Goals 85.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Paysandu PA Clean Sheet 68%
Tuna Luso Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Paysandu PA Tuna Luso
Matches Played 35 36
Wins 20 15
Draws 5 6
Losses 10 15
Goals Scored 1.88 1.33
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.33
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.83

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 19, 2026 Paraense
Paysandu PA vs Tuna Luso
5:1
Feb 4, 2026 Paraense
Tuna Luso vs Paysandu PA
1:0
Jan 28, 2025 Paraense
Paysandu PA vs Tuna Luso
2:1
Jan 15, 2024 Club Friendly
Paysandu PA vs Tuna Luso
2:1
Apr 19, 2023 Paraense
Paysandu PA vs Tuna Luso
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Paysandu PA Compare

Top Goalscorer Iarley Brito
1 Goals
Assists Leader Italo Carvalho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Tuna Luso Compare

Avg xG / game 1.21
Avg xA / game 0.74

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Paysandu PA 41 / 100
Tuna Luso 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Paysandu PA Tuna Luso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PAY Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Paysandu PA scored in 77% of their last 35 games.

Tuna Luso's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 36 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Solid form: Paysandu PA remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Paysandu PA VS Tuna Luso
1.88 Goals Scored 1.33
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.83
88% Over 1.5 83%
75% Over 2.5 67%
50% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Paysandu PA

(Home)
12 Jul
Paysandu PA
3 : 2
Guarani
05 Jul
Ypiranga FC
1 : 0
Paysandu PA
27 Jun
Paysandu PA
1 : 3
Santa Cruz
21 Jun
Maranhao
0 : 1
Paysandu PA
14 Jun
Paysandu PA
1 : 2
Internacional de Limeira
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Tuna Luso

(Away)
27 Jun
Iguatu
1 : 1
Tuna Luso
21 Jun
Tuna Luso
1 : 2
Iguatu
06 Jun
Imperatriz
4 : 0
Tuna Luso
31 May
Tuna Luso
1 : 0
Trem
24 May
Oratorio
3 : 3
Tuna Luso
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Cameta2
Santa Rosa0
Aguia De Maraba1
Remo2
Paysandu PA5
Tuna Luso1
Capitao Poco0
Castanhal1
Semi-finals
Cameta2
Remo3
Paysandu PA1
Castanhal0
Final
Remo1
Paysandu PA2