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Penalva do Castelo vs Agueda

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019
Penalva do Castelo Logo

Penalva do Castelo

0 - 1
FT
Agueda Logo

Agueda

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019 game between Penalva do Castelo and Agueda finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Agueda.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Penalva do Castelo
20%
Draws
40%
Agueda
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Agueda's 0.77 goals per match outpaces what Penalva do Castelo have produced (0.7).
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2018/2019 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Penalva do Castelo Clean Sheet 10%
Agueda Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penalva do Castelo Agueda
Matches Played 30 26
Wins 5 5
Draws 7 6
Losses 18 15
Goals Scored 0.7 0.77
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 2.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 3, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Penalva do Castelo vs Agueda
0:1
Oct 7, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Agueda vs Penalva do Castelo
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penalva do Castelo 30 / 100
Agueda 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penalva do Castelo Agueda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Agueda Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Agueda conceded in 73% of 26 recent games.

Difficult form: Agueda registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Penalva do Castelo found the back of the net in 53% of recent matches (30 games).

These sides typically produce 0.50 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Penalva do Castelo VS Agueda
0 Goals Scored 1.38
4 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 50%
100% Over 2.5 38%
100% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Penalva do Castelo

(Home)
29 Aug
Oliveirense
4 : 0
Penalva do Castelo
12 May
Leca
2 : 0
Penalva do Castelo
05 May
Penalva do Castelo
0 : 2
Coimbroes
28 Apr
Penalva do Castelo
0 : 0
Paredes
20 Apr
Cinfaes
2 : 1
Penalva do Castelo
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Agueda

(Away)
01 Oct
Agueda
0 : 1
Pevidem
10 Apr
Sanjoanense
1 : 0
Agueda
03 Apr
Agueda
0 : 1
Sao Joao de Ver
21 Mar
Agueda
0 : 2
Castro Daire
12 Mar
Agueda
0 : 0
Canelas 2010
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 SC Espinho 34 20 9 5 52:20 69
2 Lusitania FC 34 19 12 3 52:27 69
3 Gondomar 34 18 10 6 50:22 64
4 Agueda 34 16 12 6 43:26 60
5 Lusitano FCV 34 17 8 9 59:28 59
6 Sanjoanense 34 15 10 9 44:34 55
7 Amarante FC 34 15 9 10 45:28 54
8 Coimbroes 34 13 10 11 43:39 49
9 Maritimo B 34 12 13 9 53:40 49
10 Paredes 34 13 7 14 42:33 46
11 U. Madeira 34 12 8 14 28:35 44
12 Leca 34 12 7 15 34:41 43
13 Pedras Rubras 34 9 15 10 36:43 42
14 Cinfaes 34 11 8 15 33:40 41
15 Gafanha 34 11 4 19 46:69 37
16 Penalva do Castelo 34 7 7 20 27:66 28
17 FC Cesarense 34 4 13 17 37:55 25
18 Meda 34 0 2 32 21:99 2
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2018/2019 (Play Offs)