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Penapolense vs AEA Aracatuba Prediction & H2H Stats

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Paulista A4
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Adekunle Ibrahim A.
19' Event
Daniel
35' Event
Adekunle Ibrahim A.

AI Match Summary

The Paulista A4 game between Penapolense and AEA Aracatuba finished 6-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Penapolense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Penapolense
30%
Draws
0%
AEA Aracatuba
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Penapolense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Penapolense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 70% — that's where the model lands on Penapolense taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Penapolense Clean Sheet 68%
AEA Aracatuba Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penapolense AEA Aracatuba
Matches Played 31 34
Wins 12 7
Draws 14 6
Losses 5 21
Goals Scored 1.39 0.71
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.79
Expected Goals (xG) 2.31 0.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 Paulista A4
Penapolense vs AEA Aracatuba
6:0
Feb 15, 2025 Paulista A4
AEA Aracatuba vs Penapolense
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penapolense Compare

Top Goalscorer Adekunle Ibrahim A.
4 Goals
Assists Leader Daniel
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.78
Avg xA / game 1.16

AEA Aracatuba Compare

Avg xG / game 0.4
Avg xA / game 0.24

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penapolense 95 / 100
AEA Aracatuba 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penapolense AEA Aracatuba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penapolense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penapolense has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

AEA Aracatuba's recent record shows 5 losses from the last 5 matches.

Attacking prowess: Penapolense scored in 71% of their last 31 outings.

AEA Aracatuba has conceded goals in 76% of their last 34 outings.

Scoring Trends

Penapolense VS AEA Aracatuba
1.63 Goals Scored 0.38
0.5 Goals Conceded 3
63% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Penapolense

(Home)
09 May
Inter de Bebedouro
1 : 1
Penapolense
06 May
Penapolense
2 : 1
Inter de Bebedouro
02 May
Sao Caetano
2 : 2
Penapolense
25 Apr
Penapolense
2 : 1
Sao Caetano
18 Apr
Penapolense
2 : 2
Taquaritinga
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AEA Aracatuba

(Away)
04 Apr
AEA Aracatuba
0 : 3
Jabaquara
28 Mar
Penapolense
6 : 0
AEA Aracatuba
25 Mar
AEA Aracatuba
0 : 4
Vocem
21 Mar
ECUS SP
2 : 0
AEA Aracatuba
18 Mar
AEA Aracatuba
2 : 3
Nacional SP
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter de Bebedouro 15 10 3 2 21:6 33
2 Sao Caetano 15 9 2 4 23:14 29
3 Penapolense 15 8 5 2 22:10 29
4 Sao-Carlense 15 7 5 3 20:13 26
5 Barretos EC 15 7 5 3 12:10 26
6 Taquaritinga 15 7 3 5 20:13 24
7 Jacarei FC 15 6 5 4 11:9 23
8 Lemense 15 6 4 5 14:12 22
9 ECUS SP 15 5 7 3 11:6 22
10 Comercial 15 6 2 7 17:16 20
11 Tanabi 15 4 6 5 12:10 18
12 Jabaquara 15 4 4 7 14:17 16
13 Vocem 15 3 6 6 12:13 15
14 Colorado Caieiras 15 1 7 7 6:20 10
15 Nacional SP 15 2 2 11 7:22 8
16 AEA Aracatuba 15 1 2 12 6:37 5
Promotion - Paulista A4 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paulista B (Main)