Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Penarol U20 vs Cerro Porteno U20

South America South America

Copa Libertadores U20 2023 Estadio La Portada, La Serena
Sun, Jul 16, 2023
2 - 3
04:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

44' Event
Portillo Avalos T. G.
53' Event
De Armas N.
76' Event
Gimenez Delgado J. J.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-3, with Cerro Porteno U20 advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%
Penarol U20
15%
Draws
37%
Cerro Porteno U20
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Penarol U20

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Penarol U20 carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Penarol U20 a 48% chance of winning this.
  • Penarol U20 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Cerro Porteno U20, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Penarol U20 Clean Sheet 68%
Cerro Porteno U20 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penarol U20 Cerro Porteno U20
Matches Played 11 8
Wins 7 4
Draws 1 1
Losses 3 3
Goals Scored 2 1.63
Goals Conceded 1 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 16, 2023 Copa Libertadores U20
Penarol U20 vs Cerro Porteno U20
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penarol U20 Compare

Top Goalscorer De Armas N.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Umpierrez L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Cerro Porteno U20 Compare

Top Goalscorer Portillo Avalos T. G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gimenez Delgado J. J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penarol U20 77 / 100
Cerro Porteno U20 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penarol U20 Cerro Porteno U20

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penarol U20 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penarol U20 found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (11 games).

Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.

Cerro Porteno U20 has conceded goals in 75% of their last 8 outings.

Penarol U20 went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Penarol U20 VS Cerro Porteno U20
2.25 Goals Scored 1.63
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Penarol U20

(Home)
16 Jul
Penarol U20
2 : 3
Cerro Porteno U20
13 Jul
Penarol U20
0 : 1
Boca Juniors U20
07 Jul
O'Higgins U20
1 : 2
Penarol U20
04 Jul
Penarol U20
4 : 1
Alianza Lima U20
01 Jul
Penarol U20
5 : 1
Caracas U20
Page 1 of 3

Cerro Porteno U20

(Away)
09 Mar
Blooming U20
0 : 0
Cerro Porteno U20
06 Mar
Cerro Porteno U20
0 : 3
Palmeiras U20
03 Mar
Independiente del Valle U20
2 : 3
Cerro Porteno U20
16 Jul
Penarol U20
2 : 3
Cerro Porteno U20
13 Jul
Independiente del Valle U20
1 : 0
Cerro Porteno U20
Page 1 of 2

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Penarol U20 0
Boca Juniors U20 1
Independiente del Valle U20 1
Cerro Porteno U20 0
Final
Boca Juniors U20 2
Independiente del Valle U20 0
Penarol U20 2
Cerro Porteno U20 3