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Penarol vs Albion - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Centenario, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Jaime C.
25' Event
Ferreira L.
60'
Arezo M.

AI Match Summary

Penarol in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Penarol.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

15%
Penarol
35%
Draws
50%
Albion
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Albion

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Penarol lately — more wins on the board than Albion.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Penarol here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Penarol Clean Sheet 22%
Albion Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penarol Albion
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 14 11
Draws 11 7
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.42 1.3
Goals Conceded 0.84 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Albion
3:1
Mar 14, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Albion vs Penarol
0:1
Aug 13, 2022 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Albion
2:0
Jul 23, 2022 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Albion vs Penarol
1:3
Feb 19, 2022 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Albion vs Penarol
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penarol Compare

Top Goalscorer Jaime C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ferreira L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Albion Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penarol 32 / 100
Albion 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penarol Albion

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Albion Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Penarol scored in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Albion has conceded goals in 77% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Penarol went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Penarol VS Albion
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.88
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Penarol

(Home)
31 Oct
Penarol
1 : 1
Wanderers
27 Oct
Penarol
0 : 2
Montevideo City
23 Oct
Juventud
0 : 0
Penarol
18 Oct
Liverpool M.
1 : 0
Penarol
10 Oct
Penarol
1 : 1
Progreso
Page 1 of 7

Albion

(Away)
02 Nov
Albion
0 : 0
Maldonado
24 Oct
Central Esp.
1 : 3
Albion
18 Oct
Albion
2 : 1
Montevideo City
15 Oct
Maldonado
4 : 1
Albion
11 Oct
Cerro Largo
0 : 1
Albion
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Liverpool M. 13 9 3 1 22:8 30
2 Montevideo City 13 9 1 3 26:14 28
3 Club Nacional 13 8 2 3 19:13 26
4 Maldonado 13 6 4 3 18:10 22
5 Penarol 13 6 5 2 17:9 22
6 Racing Montevideo 13 5 4 4 18:14 19
7 Progreso 13 6 1 6 13:15 19
8 Juventud 13 4 6 3 12:10 18
9 CA Cerro 13 5 3 5 15:19 18
10 Wanderers 13 4 4 5 14:19 16
11 Boston River 13 4 3 6 15:17 15
12 Albion 13 4 1 8 15:20 13
13 Defensor Sp. 13 3 3 7 16:23 12
14 Danubio 13 2 4 7 7:15 10
15 Cerro Largo 13 1 6 6 10:17 9
16 Central Esp. 13 2 2 9 8:22 8
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)