Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Penarol vs Albion

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estadio Centenario, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Jaime C.
25' Event
Ferreira L.
60'
Arezo M.

AI Match Summary

Penarol in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Penarol.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Penarol
20%
Draws
23%
Albion
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Penarol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Penarol lately — more wins on the board than Albion.
  • Win probability leans Penarol's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Liga AUF Uruguaya form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Penarol here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Penarol Clean Sheet 68%
Albion Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penarol Albion
Matches Played 34 29
Wins 16 10
Draws 9 8
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.53 1.28
Goals Conceded 0.94 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 0.76
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Albion
3:1
Mar 14, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Albion vs Penarol
0:1
Aug 13, 2022 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Penarol vs Albion
2:0
Jul 23, 2022 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Albion vs Penarol
1:3
Feb 19, 2022 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Albion vs Penarol
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penarol Compare

Top Goalscorer Jaime C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ferreira L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Albion Compare

Avg xG / game 0.69
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penarol 95 / 100
Albion 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penarol Albion

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penarol Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Penarol scored in 79% of their last 34 outings.

Albion has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.60 goals when they meet.

Penarol went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Penarol VS Albion
2 Goals Scored 0.88
0.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Penarol

(Home)
13 Sept
Penarol
3 : 1
Albion
05 Sept
Danubio
0 : 4
Penarol
02 Sept
Atenas
2 : 2
Penarol
30 Aug
Penarol
0 : 1
Club Nacional
26 Aug
Penarol
1 : 0
Montevideo City
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Albion

(Away)
13 Sept
Penarol
3 : 1
Albion
07 Sept
Albion
0 : 1
Progreso
03 Sept
Albion
2 : 1
Progreso
31 Aug
Racing Montevideo
1 : 0
Albion
27 Aug
Club Nacional
0 : 0
Albion
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Montevideo City 5 5 0 0 14:4 15
2 Liverpool M. 6 4 1 1 12:4 13
3 CA Cerro 6 4 1 1 8:7 13
4 Racing Montevideo 6 3 2 1 8:5 11
5 Penarol 5 3 1 1 9:3 9
6 Juventud 6 2 3 1 7:5 9
7 Maldonado 6 2 2 2 6:5 8
8 Boston River 6 2 2 2 8:8 8
9 Club Nacional 6 2 2 2 6:7 8
10 Wanderers 6 2 2 2 7:9 8
11 Progreso 6 2 0 4 3:7 6
12 Cerro Largo 6 0 5 1 5:6 5
13 Central Esp. 6 1 2 3 3:7 5
14 Defensor Sp. 6 1 2 3 4:10 5
15 Danubio 6 0 3 3 1:7 3
16 Albion 6 0 0 6 4:11 0
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)