Sport Picks
Penarol vs Montevideo City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Uruguay
Copa Uruguay Campeón del Siglo, Montevideo 
AI Match Summary
The first leg ended 1-0. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Montevideo City have shipped 1.37 goals a game lately, while Penarol have conceded 0.86 and scored 1.48. Head-to-head, Penarol have won 4 to Montevideo City's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Sep 30, 2026, ending 1:1. xG projections (1.13 - 1.31) back Penarol to edge this. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Montevideo City have won more games recently than Penarol.
- Win probability leans Penarol's way, sitting at 50%.
- Montevideo City arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Penarol, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Penarol have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Penarol | Montevideo City |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 27 |
| Wins | 14 | 15 |
| Draws | 9 | 3 |
| Losses | 6 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 1.48 | 1.67 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.86 | 1.37 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.13 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Penarol found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).
Montevideo City's defensive record shows goals conceded in 78% of 27 matches.
Games between these two average 2.40 goals.
Recent resilience: Penarol stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
