Sport Picks
AI Match Summary
Penarol host Progreso in the Liga AUF Uruguaya. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Progreso have shipped 1.36 goals a game lately, while Penarol have conceded 0.9 and scored 1.6. Past meetings favor Penarol slightly — 5-0-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 4, 2026, ending 0:2. The numbers (1.44 xG vs 0.94) point toward Penarol. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
- Penarol have won more games recently than Progreso.
- Penarol are the model's pick here, at 40%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Penarol have taken 5 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Penarol | Progreso |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 28 |
| Wins | 15 | 8 |
| Draws | 9 | 2 |
| Losses | 6 | 18 |
| Goals Scored | 1.6 | 0.79 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.9 | 1.36 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 0.94 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Attack & Defence Capability Index
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Progreso has conceded goals in 86% of their last 28 outings.
These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.
Penarol has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Penarol scored in 77% of their last 30 games.
Scoring Trends
Recent Form & Match History
Penarol
(Home)Progreso
(Away)League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo City | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19:8 | 19 |
| 2 | Liverpool M. | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14:5 | 17 |
| 3 | Penarol | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14:6 | 16 |
| 4 | Maldonado | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10:5 | 14 |
| 5 | Club Nacional | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11:9 | 14 |
| 6 | CA Cerro | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9:9 | 14 |
| 7 | Juventud | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10:6 | 13 |
| 8 | Racing Montevideo | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9:7 | 12 |
| 9 | Wanderers | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10:11 | 12 |
| 10 | Progreso | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 7:9 | 12 |
| 11 | Boston River | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10:12 | 8 |
| 12 | Defensor Sp. | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7:13 | 8 |
| 13 | Cerro Largo | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 5:10 | 5 |
| 14 | Central Esp. | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5:13 | 5 |
| 15 | Danubio | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2:9 | 4 |
| 16 | Albion | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 6:16 | 0 |
