Sport Picks

Brazil

Copa do Brasil Women

Alagoinhas W

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Penarol W play Alagoinhas W in the Copa do Brasil Women. It looks like a close match. Recently, Penarol W averaged 2.76 goals scored and 1.06 conceded. Alagoinhas W averaged 1.93 goals scored and 2 conceded. In past meetings, Penarol W won 0, Alagoinhas W won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 29, 2026 ended 0:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for Penarol W and 0.81 for Alagoinhas W. This points to a Penarol W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%

Penarol W

15%

Draws

32%

Alagoinhas W

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Penarol W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence

Penarol W picked up more points recently compared to Alagoinhas W.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 0.81 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 70%

Over 2.5 Goals 59%

Over 3.5 Goals 35%

Over 4.5 Goals 18%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33%

Penarol W Clean Sheet 26%

Alagoinhas W Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 63%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Penarol W	Alagoinhas W
Matches Played	17	30
Wins	12	12
Draws	1	5
Losses	4	13
Goals Scored	2.76	1.93
Goals Conceded	1.06	2
Expected Goals (xG)	2.38	0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	0.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 29, 2026 Copa do Brasil Women

Penarol W vs Alagoinhas W

Possession: 44% - 59% Cards: 3 - 1

0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penarol W 53 / 100

Alagoinhas W 31 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Penarol W Alagoinhas W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penarol W Win (1)

Secondary Pick Penarol W & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +17.7%

2.22

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11.5%

1.89

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Penarol W attacking → ← attacking Alagoinhas W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penarol W scored in 88% of their last 16 games.

Alagoinhas W let in goals in 55% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 0.00 goals.

Penarol W went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Alagoinhas W lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

37 Points in last 5 41

2.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.75

0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.88