Sport Picks

Wales

Cymru North 2025/2026

Caersws FC

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Penrhyncoch play Caersws FC in the Cymru North 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Penrhyncoch averaged 1.61 goals scored and 1.74 conceded. Caersws FC averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. In past meetings, Penrhyncoch won 3, Caersws FC won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 6, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Penrhyncoch and 1.31 for Caersws FC. This points to a Penrhyncoch double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%

Penrhyncoch

15%

Draws

38%

Caersws FC

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Penrhyncoch

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence

Penrhyncoch picked up more points recently compared to Caersws FC.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 1.31 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 67%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 83%

Over 2.5 Goals 67%

Over 3.5 Goals 40%

Over 4.5 Goals 20%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 61%

Penrhyncoch Clean Sheet 18%

Caersws FC Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 75%

Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Penrhyncoch	Caersws FC
Matches Played	31	30
Wins	13	11
Draws	4	4
Losses	14	15
Goals Scored	1.61	1.6
Goals Conceded	1.74	1.67
Expected Goals (xG)	1.50	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.38	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 6, 2026 Cymru North

Caersws FC vs Penrhyncoch

Possession: 57% - 47% Cards: 3 - 3

1:2

Feb 4, 2026 Cymru North

Penrhyncoch vs Caersws FC

Possession: 49% - 58% Cards: 2 - 2

1:3

Mar 1, 2025 Cymru North

Caersws FC vs Penrhyncoch

Possession: 49% - 45% Cards: 3 - 3

1:2

Feb 18, 2025 Cymru North

Penrhyncoch vs Caersws FC

Possession: 50% - 42% Cards: 2 - 4

4:1

Sep 17, 2022 FA Cup

Penrhyncoch vs Caersws FC

Possession: 46% - 46% Cards: 2 - 2

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penrhyncoch Compare

Top Goalscorer Kellaway G.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.15

Avg xA / game 0.75

Caersws FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Jones A.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Rowlands T.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.14

Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penrhyncoch 46 / 100

Caersws FC 36 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Penrhyncoch Caersws FC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Penrhyncoch or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +20.3%

2.56

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +9.9%

1.64

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Penrhyncoch attacking → ← attacking Caersws FC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penrhyncoch scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

Caersws FC let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Penrhyncoch went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Caersws FC lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

43 Points in last 5 37

1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.25

1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Llandudno FC	30	26	2	2	77:22	80
2	Airbus UK Broughton FC	30	24	3	3	93:22	75
3	Holywell Town FC	30	18	6	6	78:40	60
4	Newtown	30	15	3	12	51:49	48
5	Rhyl	30	14	4	12	46:55	46
6	Guilsfield	30	13	4	13	50:48	43
7	Mold Alexandra	30	12	5	13	38:45	41
8	Denbigh	30	12	4	14	52:59	40
9	Caersws FC	30	11	4	15	46:51	37
10	Brickfield Rangers	30	11	4	15	39:49	37
11	Holyhead	30	10	6	14	44:49	36
12	Penrhyncoch	30	10	5	15	45:53	35
13	Buckley	30	9	3	18	50:77	30
14	Flint Mountain	30	9	2	19	39:61	29
15	Gresford	30	8	4	18	47:87	28
16	Ruthin Town	30	6	5	19	36:64	23