Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2024/2025

Collerense

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Penya Independent play Collerense in the Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Penya Independent averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. Collerense averaged 1.19 goals scored and 1.88 conceded. In past meetings, Penya Independent won 3, Collerense won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 5, 2025 ended 4:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.54 for Penya Independent and 1.05 for Collerense. This points to a Penya Independent double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

55%

Penya Independent

19%

Draws

26%

Collerense

Draw rate projection: 19% Favored: Penya Independent

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

83% / High Confidence

Penya Independent picked up more points recently compared to Collerense.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.54 vs 1.05 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 71%

Over 2.5 Goals 48%

Over 3.5 Goals 29%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%

Penya Independent Clean Sheet 22%

Collerense Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 64%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Penya Independent	Collerense
Matches Played	30	32
Wins	12	6
Draws	8	9
Losses	10	17
Goals Scored	1.5	1.19
Goals Conceded	1.07	1.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 5, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 11

Penya Independent vs Collerense

Possession: 49% - 60% Cards: 2 - 1

4:3

Nov 23, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 11

Collerense vs Penya Independent

Possession: 55% - 53% Cards: 2 - 3

3:1

Apr 8, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 11

Collerense vs Penya Independent

Possession: 47% - 58% Cards: 2 - 4

0:1

Dec 11, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 11

Penya Independent vs Collerense

Possession: 51% - 57% Cards: 4 - 3

3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penya Independent Compare

Top Goalscorer Vera Botta A. M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Reales D.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Collerense Compare

Top Goalscorer Riveron S.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Rodado A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penya Independent 54 / 100

Collerense 25 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Penya Independent Collerense

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penya Independent Win (1)

Secondary Pick Penya Independent & Under 3.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +17.1%

2.13

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.2%

2.38

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Penya Independent attacking → ← attacking Collerense

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penya Independent scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Collerense let in goals in 84% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 3.75 goals.

Penya Independent went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Collerense lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

44 Points in last 5 27

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.00

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.88

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	UD Poblense	34	22	6	6	47:17	72
2	Constancia	34	18	13	3	55:31	67
3	Formentera	34	19	9	6	68:34	66
4	Porreres	34	17	11	6	51:32	62
5	Penya Independent	34	17	7	10	59:34	58
6	Platges de Calvia	34	14	12	8	51:37	54
7	Manacor	34	13	12	9	54:36	51
8	Alcudia	34	13	8	13	51:53	47
9	Binissalem	34	13	8	13	35:34	47
10	Llosetense	34	12	8	14	47:45	44
11	Santanyi	34	10	13	11	40:45	43
12	Mercadal	34	10	10	14	40:43	40
13	Felanitx	34	10	10	14	33:50	40
14	Collerense	34	9	12	13	42:48	39
15	Portmany	34	8	13	13	43:51	37
16	PE Sant Jordi	34	8	6	20	30:52	30
17	Campos	34	4	8	22	31:75	20
18	Migjorn	34	4	4	26	22:82	16