Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2024/2025

Migjorn

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Penya Independent play Migjorn in the Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2024/2025. Penya Independent are favorites here. Recently, Penya Independent averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. Migjorn averaged 0.7 goals scored and 2.47 conceded. In past meetings, Penya Independent won 1, Migjorn won 0, and they drew 1. Their last match on Feb 5, 2025 ended 5:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.13 for Penya Independent and 1.06 for Migjorn. This points to a Penya Independent double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%

Penya Independent

18%

Draws

17%

Migjorn

Draw rate projection: 18% Favored: Penya Independent

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

92% / Very High Confidence

Penya Independent picked up more points recently compared to Migjorn.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.13 vs 1.06 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 79%

Over 2.5 Goals 53%

Over 3.5 Goals 32%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%

Penya Independent Clean Sheet 22%

Migjorn Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 71%

Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Penya Independent	Migjorn
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	12	4
Draws	8	3
Losses	10	23
Goals Scored	1.5	0.7
Goals Conceded	1.07	2.47
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	2.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 5, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 11

Penya Independent vs Migjorn

Possession: 60% - 48% Cards: 2 - 3

5:0

Sep 21, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 11

Migjorn vs Penya Independent

Possession: 45% - 42% Cards: 2 - 2

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penya Independent Compare

Top Goalscorer Martinez A.

2 Goals

Assists Leader Vera L.

2 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

Migjorn Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57

Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penya Independent 63 / 100

Migjorn 17 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Penya Independent Migjorn

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Penya Independent Win (1)

Secondary Pick Penya Independent & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +13.7%

1.75

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.9%

2.13

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Penya Independent attacking → ← attacking Migjorn

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penya Independent scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

Migjorn let in goals in 93% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Penya Independent went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Migjorn lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

44 Points in last 5 15

1.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.63

1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	UD Poblense	34	22	6	6	47:17	72
2	Constancia	34	18	13	3	55:31	67
3	Formentera	34	19	9	6	68:34	66
4	Porreres	34	17	11	6	51:32	62
5	Penya Independent	34	17	7	10	59:34	58
6	Platges de Calvia	34	14	12	8	51:37	54
7	Manacor	34	13	12	9	54:36	51
8	Alcudia	34	13	8	13	51:53	47
9	Binissalem	34	13	8	13	35:34	47
10	Llosetense	34	12	8	14	47:45	44
11	Santanyi	34	10	13	11	40:45	43
12	Mercadal	34	10	10	14	40:43	40
13	Felanitx	34	10	10	14	33:50	40
14	Collerense	34	9	12	13	42:48	39
15	Portmany	34	8	13	13	43:51	37
16	PE Sant Jordi	34	8	6	20	30:52	30
17	Campos	34	4	8	22	31:75	20
18	Migjorn	34	4	4	26	22:82	16