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Penya vs Esperanca

Andorra Andorra

Primera Divisió 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

25'
Garrido A.
25'
Ricardo A.
47' Event
Garcia J.

AI Match Summary

Penya in this Primera Divisió 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Penya.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Penya
30%
Draws
58%
Esperanca
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Esperanca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Penya lately — more wins on the board than Esperanca.
  • Model gives Esperanca a 58% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Primera Divisió 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Penya here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.4%
Penya Clean Sheet 17%
Esperanca Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penya Esperanca
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 7 6
Draws 5 5
Losses 16 17
Goals Scored 0.79 1
Goals Conceded 1.82 1.82
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 13, 2026 Primera Divisió
Esperanca vs Penya
0:1
Feb 1, 2026 Primera Divisió
Penya vs Esperanca
1:0
Nov 9, 2025 Primera Divisió
Esperanca vs Penya
0:1
Apr 27, 2025 Primera Divisió
Penya vs Esperanca
4:1
Feb 16, 2025 Primera Divisió
Esperanca vs Penya
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penya Compare

Top Goalscorer Garcia J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Esperanca Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penya 10 / 100
Esperanca 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penya Esperanca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Esperanca Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Esperanca let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Penya's goal record stands at 50% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Solid form: Penya remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Penya VS Esperanca
0.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Penya

(Home)
19 Sept
Carroi
2 : 2
Penya
13 Sept
FC Santa Coloma
4 : 0
Penya
06 Sept
Penya
1 : 1
Atletic Escaldes
17 May
Atletic Escaldes
2 : 0
Penya
10 May
Penya
1 : 2
FC Rangers
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Esperanca

(Away)
20 Sept
Esperanca
4 : 0
Ordino
13 Sept
FC Rangers
2 : 1
Esperanca
06 Sept
Esperanca
2 : 2
Inter Escaldes
27 May
Esperanca
2 : 0
Sporting Escaldes
23 May
Sporting Escaldes
1 : 3
Esperanca
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Inter Escaldes 24 17 3 4 47:24 54
2 UE Santa Coloma 24 14 6 4 42:16 48
3 FC Rangers 24 15 3 6 46:22 48
4 FC Santa Coloma 24 13 5 6 45:20 44
5 Atletic Escaldes 24 10 4 10 31:26 34
6 Penya 24 7 3 14 19:41 24
7 Ordino 24 6 4 14 27:42 22
8 Carroi 24 4 5 15 15:55 17
9 Esperanca 24 3 5 16 18:44 14
10 Pas de la Casa 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Primera Divisió 2025/2026 (Relegation)