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Penya vs Esperanca - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Andorra Andorra

Primera Divisió Estadi Nacional, Andorra la Vella
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
VS
10:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Penya host Esperanca in the Primera Divisió. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Recent numbers: Penya at 0.77 goals for, 1.88 against; Esperanca at 1.08 for, 1.88 against. Past meetings favor Penya slightly — 5-0-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 13, 2026, ending 0:1. The numbers (0.88 xG vs 1.56) point toward Penya. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Penya
30%
Draws
58%
Esperanca
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Esperanca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Esperanca at 1.08 per game, Penya at 0.77.
  • Esperanca are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Penya have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
Penya Clean Sheet 15%
Esperanca Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penya Esperanca
Matches Played 26 26
Wins 6 6
Draws 5 4
Losses 15 16
Goals Scored 0.77 1.08
Goals Conceded 1.88 1.88
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 13, 2026 Primera Divisió
Esperanca vs Penya
0:1
Feb 1, 2026 Primera Divisió
Penya vs Esperanca
1:0
Nov 9, 2025 Primera Divisió
Esperanca vs Penya
0:1
Apr 27, 2025 Primera Divisió
Penya vs Esperanca
4:1
Feb 16, 2025 Primera Divisió
Esperanca vs Penya
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penya 10 / 100
Esperanca 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penya Esperanca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Esperanca Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Esperanca conceded in 81% of 26 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Penya scored in 50% of their last 26 games.

Penya went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Penya VS Esperanca
0.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Penya

(Home)
19 Sept
Carroi
2 : 2
Penya
13 Sept
FC Santa Coloma
4 : 0
Penya
06 Sept
Penya
1 : 1
Atletic Escaldes
17 May
Atletic Escaldes
2 : 0
Penya
10 May
Penya
1 : 2
FC Rangers
Page 1 of 6

Esperanca

(Away)
20 Sept
Esperanca
4 : 0
Ordino
13 Sept
FC Rangers
2 : 1
Esperanca
06 Sept
Esperanca
2 : 2
Inter Escaldes
27 May
Esperanca
2 : 0
Sporting Escaldes
23 May
Sporting Escaldes
1 : 3
Esperanca
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Santa Coloma 3 3 0 0 12:1 9
2 Inter Escaldes 3 2 1 0 8:2 7
3 Atletic Escaldes 3 2 1 0 8:2 7
4 Ordino 3 2 0 1 5:7 6
5 FC Rangers 3 1 1 1 3:5 4
6 Esperanca 3 1 1 1 7:4 4
7 Penya 3 0 2 1 3:7 2
8 Casa de Portugal 3 0 1 2 3:7 1
9 Carroi 3 0 1 2 2:8 1
10 Sporting Escaldes 3 0 0 3 3:11 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Primera Divisió (Relegation)