Sport Picks
Penybont vs Caernarfon - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Wales
Cymru Premier Bryntirion Park, Bridgend 
Match Events
19'
19'
Venables C.
49'
49'
Walker T.
50'
50'
Charsley H.
AI Match Summary
The Cymru Premier game between Penybont and Caernarfon finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Penybont.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
49%
15%
36%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Penybont
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
49%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Caernarfon come out ahead of Penybont on wins alone.
- Model gives Penybont a 49% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Penybont Clean Sheet 10%
Caernarfon Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Penybont | Caernarfon |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 31 |
| Wins | 16 | 17 |
| Draws | 5 | 3 |
| Losses | 9 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.97 | 1.52 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.88 | 2.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Nov 6, 2026 Cymru Premier
Penybont vs Caernarfon
2:0
Aug 7, 2026 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs Penybont
1:2
Apr 18, 2026 Cymru Premier
Caernarfon vs Penybont
2:0
Jan 24, 2026 Cymru Premier
Penybont vs Caernarfon
0:0
Oct 25, 2025 Cymru Premier
Penybont vs Caernarfon
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Penybont Compare
Top Goalscorer Venables C.
1 Goals Assists Leader Walker T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94
Caernarfon Compare
Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Penybont 83 / 100
Caernarfon 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Penybont Caernarfon
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Penybont Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Penybont scored in 70% of their last 30 games.
Caernarfon let in goals in 71% of their last 31 matches.
These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.
Solid form: Penybont remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Penybont VS Caernarfon
2.75 Goals Scored 3.13
1 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Penybont
(Home) 06 Nov
Penybont
2 : 0 Caernarfon
31 Oct
Cardiff Metropolitan University
0 : 5 Penybont
18 Oct
Afan Lido
2 : 3 Penybont
09 Oct
Penybont
3 : 1 Barry Town
03 Oct
Connahs Q.
1 : 0 Penybont
Page 1 of 6
06 Nov
Penybont
2 : 0 Caernarfon
09 Oct
Penybont
3 : 1 Barry Town
26 Sept
Penybont
2 : 1 Airbus UK Broughton FC
15 Sept
Penybont
3 : 2 Briton Ferry
05 Sept
Penybont
1 : 0 Colwyn Bay
Page 1 of 3
Caernarfon
(Away) 06 Nov
Penybont
2 : 0 Caernarfon
30 Oct
Airbus UK Broughton FC
3 : 2 Caernarfon
23 Oct
Caernarfon
3 : 1 Briton Ferry
17 Oct
Flint Town
1 : 3 Caernarfon
09 Oct
Haverfordwest
1 : 2 Caernarfon
Page 1 of 7
06 Nov
Penybont
2 : 0 Caernarfon
30 Oct
Airbus UK Broughton FC
3 : 2 Caernarfon
17 Oct
Flint Town
1 : 3 Caernarfon
09 Oct
Haverfordwest
1 : 2 Caernarfon
26 Sept
Cardiff Metropolitan University
2 : 2 Caernarfon
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TNS | 16 | 14 | 2 | 0 | 54:6 | 44 |
| 2 | Connahs Q. | 16 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 34:9 | 38 |
| 3 | Penybont | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 32:11 | 36 |
| 4 | Colwyn Bay | 16 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 28:18 | 32 |
| 5 | Airbus UK Broughton FC | 16 | 10 | 0 | 6 | 34:24 | 30 |
| 6 | Caernarfon | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 42:21 | 29 |
| 7 | Barry Town | 16 | 9 | 2 | 5 | 35:29 | 29 |
| 8 | Cardiff Metropolitan University | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 29:23 | 25 |
| 9 | Cambrian United | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 26:41 | 19 |
| 10 | Llandudno FC | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 22:29 | 16 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 12:23 | 16 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 16 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 17:28 | 15 |
| 13 | Flint Town | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 19:27 | 14 |
| 14 | Ammanford Town | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 13:43 | 12 |
| 15 | Trefelin | 16 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 9:38 | 6 |
| 16 | Holywell Town FC | 15 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 16:52 | 2 |
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Championship Group)
Promotion - Cymru Premier (Conference League Group)
Relegation - Cymru Premier (Relegation Group)
