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Penza vs Ryazan

Russia Russia

FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Penza play Ryazan in the FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3. It looks like a close match. Recently, Penza averaged 1 goals scored and 1.87 conceded. Ryazan averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. In past meetings, Penza won 0, Ryazan won 4, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 11, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.69 for Penza and 2.00 for Ryazan. This points to a Ryazan double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Penza
28%
Draws
47%
Ryazan
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Ryazan

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

79% / High Confidence
  • Penza picked up more points recently compared to Ryazan.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.69 vs 2.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%
Over 1.5 Goals 72%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%
Penza Clean Sheet 10%
Ryazan Clean Sheet 20%
First Half Goal 65%
Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Penza Ryazan
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 9
Draws 3 14
Losses 20 7
Goals Scored 1 1.2
Goals Conceded 1.87 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 3.00 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Penza vs Ryazan
1:2
Sep 13, 2025 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Ryazan vs Penza
2:1
May 24, 2025 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Penza vs Ryazan
0:1
Aug 4, 2024 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Ryazan vs Penza
1:1
Apr 21, 2024 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Penza vs Ryazan
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Penza Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Ryazan Compare

Top Goalscorer Evgenjev E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kotov A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Penza 25 / 100
Ryazan 46 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Penza Ryazan

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Ryazan or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +47%
5.88
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Penza attacking → ← attacking Ryazan

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penza scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Ryazan let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Penza went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Ryazan lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

24 Points in last 5 41
0.75 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
3.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63