Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Perolas Negras vs CEAC/Araruama

Brazil Brazil

Carioca 2
Our Tip

Match Events

55' Event
Wheidson Recife
72' Event
Wendel
79' Event
Talisson

AI Match Summary

The Carioca 2 game between Perolas Negras and CEAC/Araruama finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Perolas Negras.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Perolas Negras
20%
Draws
40%
CEAC/Araruama
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • CEAC/Araruama haven't matched Perolas Negras's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Perolas Negras Clean Sheet 68%
CEAC/Araruama Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Perolas Negras CEAC/Araruama
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 11 10
Draws 7 10
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.2 0.81
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Carioca 2
Perolas Negras vs CEAC/Araruama
3:1
May 17, 2025 Carioca 2
CEAC/Araruama vs Perolas Negras
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Perolas Negras Compare

Top Goalscorer Wheidson Recife
1 Goals
Assists Leader Talisson
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

CEAC/Araruama Compare

Top Goalscorer Wendel
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Perolas Negras 41 / 100
CEAC/Araruama 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Perolas Negras CEAC/Araruama

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Perolas Negras Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Perolas Negras's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

CEAC/Araruama's defensive record shows goals conceded in 65% of 31 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Perolas Negras went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Perolas Negras VS CEAC/Araruama
2 Goals Scored 0.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.63
75% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Perolas Negras

(Home)
22 Jul
Marica
3 : 0
Perolas Negras
15 Jul
Perolas Negras
0 : 0
Marica
04 Jul
Marica
2 : 0
Perolas Negras
27 Jun
Cabofriense
1 : 2
Perolas Negras
23 Jun
Perolas Negras
5 : 1
Santa Cruz RJ
Page 1 of 6

CEAC/Araruama

(Away)
22 Jul
Boavista
4 : 0
CEAC/Araruama
15 Jul
CEAC/Araruama
0 : 1
Boavista
08 Jul
CEAC/Araruama
2 : 1
Sao Cristovao
04 Jul
CEAC/Araruama
1 : 1
Cabofriense
27 Jun
CEAC/Araruama
1 : 0
Olaria
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Americano 11 8 1 2 18:9 25
2 Marica 11 7 3 1 11:7 24
3 Resende 11 5 4 2 16:9 19
4 America RJ 11 5 1 5 18:14 16
5 Perolas Negras 11 5 1 5 11:15 16
6 Sao Goncalo 11 4 2 5 11:10 14
7 Bonsucesso 11 4 2 5 10:11 14
8 Olaria 11 3 4 4 11:11 13
9 Cabofriense 11 3 3 5 12:13 12
10 CEAC/Araruama 11 3 2 6 11:15 11
11 Serrano FC 11 2 5 4 10:18 11
12 Audax RJ 11 3 0 8 10:17 9
Promotion - Carioca 2 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B1 (Main)