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Persebaya vs Arema FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Indonesia Indonesia

President Cup Kapten I Wayan Dipta Stadium, Gianyar
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Junio da Silva J.
27'
Sub
Ramalho In: Rivera F.
Out: Ramalho
37'
Matheus Blade

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. This leg finished 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Persebaya
35%
Draws
29%
Arema FC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Persebaya

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Persebaya lately — more wins on the board than Arema FC.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Persebaya have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Persebaya, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Persebaya Clean Sheet 20%
Arema FC Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Persebaya Arema FC
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 18 13
Draws 6 6
Losses 5 10
Goals Scored 1.83 1.69
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 4, 2026 President Cup
Persebaya vs Arema FC
1:0
Apr 28, 2026 Super League
Arema FC vs Persebaya
0:4
Nov 22, 2025 Super League
Persebaya vs Arema FC
1:1
Apr 28, 2025 Super League
Arema FC vs Persebaya
1:1
Dec 7, 2024 Super League
Persebaya vs Arema FC
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Persebaya Compare

Top Goalscorer Fernandes Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Arema FC Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Persebaya 36 / 100
Arema FC 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Persebaya Arema FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arema FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Persebaya found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (29 games).

Persebaya went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Arema FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Persebaya VS Arema FC
1.25 Goals Scored 1.88
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
38% Over 1.5 88%
25% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Persebaya

(Home)
09 Oct
Isenmulang Kalteng
0 : 1
Persebaya
19 Sept
Persebaya
1 : 1
Garudayaksa
13 Sept
Persebaya
1 : 0
PSIM Yogyakarta
05 Sept
FC Bhayangkara
1 : 1
Persebaya
15 Aug
Persebaya
1 : 0
Penang
Page 1 of 6

Arema FC

(Away)
10 Oct
Arema FC
2 : 2
FC Bhayangkara
18 Sept
Arema FC
1 : 1
Persik Kediri
13 Sept
PSM Makassar
3 : 3
Arema FC
04 Sept
Arema FC
4 : 0
Isenmulang Kalteng
22 Aug
RANS Nusantara
0 : 2
Arema FC
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Persib Bandung 2
Persija Jakarta 1
Persebaya 1
Arema FC 0
Final
Persib Bandung 1
Persebaya 2
Persija Jakarta 3
Arema FC 1