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Stadium Background

Persebaya vs Persita

Indonesia Indonesia

Super League 2025/2026 Gelora Bung Tomo Stadium, Surabaya
Our Tip

Match Events

12'
Ganet P.
45'
Nur Hardianto A.
55'
Perovic M.

AI Match Summary

The Super League 2025/2026 game between Persebaya and Persita finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Persebaya.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Persebaya
30%
Draws
9%
Persita
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Persebaya

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Persebaya come out ahead of Persita on wins alone.
  • Persebaya are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Super League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 26%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.6%
Persebaya Clean Sheet 20%
Persita Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Persebaya Persita
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 18 9
Draws 5 6
Losses 5 13
Goals Scored 1.96 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.89 1.04
Expected Goals (xG) 1.90 0.41
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2026 Super League
Persebaya vs Persita
1:0
Aug 16, 2025 Super League
Persita vs Persebaya
0:1
Jan 31, 2025 Super League
Persebaya vs Persita
1:1
Sep 14, 2024 Super League
Persita vs Persebaya
0:1
Feb 23, 2024 Super League
Persita vs Persebaya
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Persebaya Compare

Top Goalscorer Rivera F.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.46
Avg xA / game 0.95

Persita Compare

Avg xG / game 0.37
Avg xA / game 0.23

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Persebaya 85 / 100
Persita 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Persebaya Persita

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Persebaya Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Persebaya scored in 93% of their last 28 outings.

Persebaya has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Defensive concern: Persita conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

Away concern: Persita has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Persebaya VS Persita
2.38 Goals Scored 0.43
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.43
50% Over 1.5 71%
50% Over 2.5 29%
38% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Persebaya

(Home)
05 Sept
FC Bhayangkara
1 : 1
Persebaya
15 Aug
Persebaya
1 : 0
Penang
06 Aug
Persib Bandung
1 : 2
Persebaya
04 Aug
Persebaya
1 : 0
Arema FC
01 Aug
Persebaya
2 : 1
Port MTI FC
Page 1 of 6

Persita

(Away)
05 Sept
PSIM Yogyakarta
1 : 1
Persita
23 May
Persita
1 : 3
Persis Solo
16 May
Java United
1 : 1
Persita
10 May
Persita
0 : 3
Persijap Jepara
05 May
Borneo
2 : 0
Persita
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Persib Bandung 34 24 7 3 59:22 79
2 Borneo 34 25 4 5 74:31 79
3 Persija Jakarta 34 22 5 7 65:29 71
4 Persebaya 34 16 10 8 61:35 58
5 FC Bhayangkara 34 16 5 13 53:45 53
6 Java United 34 15 8 11 68:53 53
7 Dewa United 34 16 5 13 44:37 53
8 Bali United 34 14 9 11 57:48 51
9 Arema FC 34 13 9 12 53:47 48
10 Persita 34 13 6 15 38:37 45
11 PSIM Yogyakarta 34 11 12 11 43:44 45
12 Persik Kediri 34 11 6 17 42:61 39
13 Persijap Jepara 34 9 9 16 31:45 36
14 Madura United 34 9 8 17 37:54 35
15 PSM Makassar 34 8 10 16 39:49 34
16 Persis Solo 34 8 10 16 39:59 34
17 Semen Padang 34 5 5 24 22:65 20
18 PSBS Biak Numfor 34 4 6 24 31:95 18
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 (Qualification)
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Qualification)