Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Perugia vs Ostiamare

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group B Stadio Renato Curi, Perugia
Our Tip

Match Events

43'
Tosku F.
55' Event
Canotto L.
Assist: Quirini E.
62'
Sub
Spinosa M. In: Parigini V.
Out: Spinosa M.

AI Match Summary

Perugia in this Serie C - Group B matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Perugia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Perugia
15%
Draws
51%
Ostiamare
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Ostiamare

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Ostiamare have won more games recently than Perugia.
  • Win probability leans Ostiamare's way, sitting at 60%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
Perugia Clean Sheet 16%
Ostiamare Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Perugia Ostiamare
Matches Played 27 33
Wins 8 16
Draws 10 6
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.15 1.48
Goals Conceded 1.26 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 Serie C - Group B
Perugia vs Ostiamare
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Perugia Compare

Top Goalscorer Canotto L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Ostiamare Compare

Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Perugia 19 / 100
Ostiamare 68 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Perugia Ostiamare

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ostiamare Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Perugia's goal record stands at 78% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Ostiamare let in goals in 70% of their last 33 matches.

Ostiamare lost 3 of their last 5 games.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Perugia VS Ostiamare
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Perugia

(Home)
20 Sept
Grosseto
2 : 0
Perugia
16 Sept
Perugia
0 : 3
Spezia
13 Sept
Ravenna
3 : 0
Perugia
06 Sept
Perugia
2 : 1
Pineto
30 Aug
Vis Pesaro
2 : 2
Perugia
Page 1 of 6

Ostiamare

(Away)
20 Sept
Gubbio
0 : 2
Ostiamare
16 Sept
Ostiamare
0 : 1
Ravenna
13 Sept
Sassari Torres
3 : 2
Ostiamare
05 Sept
Vis Pesaro
1 : 2
Ostiamare
29 Aug
Ostiamare
1 : 2
Grosseto
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spezia 6 5 1 0 12:3 16
2 Ravenna 6 4 2 0 10:2 14
3 Reggiana 6 4 2 0 12:5 14
4 Grosseto 6 3 3 0 9:4 12
5 Livorno 6 3 2 1 7:6 11
6 Sassari Torres 6 3 1 2 8:8 10
7 Guidonia 1937 6 2 3 1 8:5 9
8 Forli FC 6 2 3 1 12:10 9
9 Atalanta U23 6 3 0 3 7:9 9
10 Campobasso 6 2 2 2 9:9 8
11 Pescara 6 2 2 2 8:9 8
12 Pineto 6 1 4 1 6:6 7
13 Gubbio 6 2 1 3 9:11 7
14 Perugia 6 2 1 3 5:11 7
15 Ostiamare 6 2 0 4 7:8 6
16 Latina 6 1 2 3 5:8 5
17 Vado 6 1 1 4 5:8 4
18 Pianese 6 0 3 3 2:6 3
19 Sambenedettese 6 0 2 4 7:11 2
20 Vis Pesaro 6 0 1 5 6:15 1
Promotion - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A (Play Out)