Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Perugia vs Pineto

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group B Stadio Renato Curi, Perugia
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Forte R.
35'
Ienco S.
39' Event
Canotto L.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Serie C - Group B game between Perugia and Pineto finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Perugia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Perugia
35%
Draws
39%
Pineto
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Pineto

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

26% / Low Confidence
  • Pineto haven't matched Perugia's recent run of results.
  • 26% — that's where the model lands on Perugia taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Perugia Clean Sheet 68%
Pineto Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Perugia Pineto
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 8 7
Draws 10 8
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.15 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.26 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Serie C - Group B
Perugia vs Pineto
2:1
Feb 28, 2026 Serie C - Group B
Perugia vs Pineto
0:1
Oct 19, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Pineto vs Perugia
3:0
Mar 28, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Perugia vs Pineto
3:0
Nov 16, 2024 Serie C - Group B
Pineto vs Perugia
3:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Perugia Compare

Top Goalscorer Kabashi E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Pineto Compare

Top Goalscorer Forte R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Perugia 59 / 100
Pineto 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Perugia Pineto

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Perugia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pineto's defensive record shows goals conceded in 82% of 28 matches.

Perugia's goal record stands at 78% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Perugia stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Perugia VS Pineto
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Perugia

(Home)
20 Sept
Grosseto
2 : 0
Perugia
16 Sept
Perugia
0 : 3
Spezia
13 Sept
Ravenna
3 : 0
Perugia
06 Sept
Perugia
2 : 1
Pineto
30 Aug
Vis Pesaro
2 : 2
Perugia
Page 1 of 6

Pineto

(Away)
20 Sept
Campobasso
2 : 2
Pineto
16 Sept
Pineto
1 : 1
Forli FC
12 Sept
Pineto
2 : 1
Sambenedettese
06 Sept
Perugia
2 : 1
Pineto
29 Aug
Pineto
0 : 0
Livorno
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spezia 6 5 1 0 12:3 16
2 Ravenna 6 4 2 0 10:2 14
3 Reggiana 6 4 2 0 12:5 14
4 Grosseto 6 3 3 0 9:4 12
5 Livorno 6 3 2 1 7:6 11
6 Sassari Torres 6 3 1 2 8:8 10
7 Guidonia 1937 6 2 3 1 8:5 9
8 Forli FC 6 2 3 1 12:10 9
9 Atalanta U23 6 3 0 3 7:9 9
10 Campobasso 6 2 2 2 9:9 8
11 Pescara 6 2 2 2 8:9 8
12 Pineto 6 1 4 1 6:6 7
13 Gubbio 6 2 1 3 9:11 7
14 Perugia 6 2 1 3 5:11 7
15 Ostiamare 6 2 0 4 7:8 6
16 Latina 6 1 2 3 5:8 5
17 Vado 6 1 1 4 5:8 4
18 Pianese 6 0 3 3 2:6 3
19 Sambenedettese 6 0 2 4 7:11 2
20 Vis Pesaro 6 0 1 5 6:15 1
Promotion - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A (Play Out)