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Perugia vs Spezia Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group B Stadio Renato Curi, Perugia
Our Tip

Match Events

18'
Durmush M.
22'
Sabbatani A.
38'
Capolupo S.

AI Match Summary

The Serie C - Group B game between Perugia and Spezia finished 0-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Spezia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Perugia
15%
Draws
61%
Spezia
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Spezia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Spezia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Spezia a 61% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Perugia Clean Sheet 10%
Spezia Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Perugia Spezia
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 9 12
Draws 10 8
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.14 1.62
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Serie C - Group B
Perugia vs Spezia
0:3
Feb 8, 2020 Serie B
Perugia vs Spezia
0:3
Sep 21, 2019 Serie B
Spezia vs Perugia
2:2
Apr 27, 2019 Serie B
Spezia vs Perugia
1:1
Dec 15, 2018 Serie B
Perugia vs Spezia
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Perugia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.53
Avg xA / game 0.34

Spezia Compare

Top Goalscorer Limonelli C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bright K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Perugia 10 / 100
Spezia 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Perugia Spezia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spezia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Perugia scored in 79% of their last 28 outings.

Spezia has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Perugia has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Perugia VS Spezia
0.88 Goals Scored 2.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Perugia

(Home)
27 Sept
Perugia
1 : 0
Reggiana
20 Sept
Grosseto
2 : 0
Perugia
16 Sept
Perugia
0 : 3
Spezia
13 Sept
Ravenna
3 : 0
Perugia
06 Sept
Perugia
2 : 1
Pineto
Page 1 of 6

Spezia

(Away)
27 Sept
Pescara
1 : 2
Spezia
21 Sept
Spezia
3 : 1
Vis Pesaro
16 Sept
Perugia
0 : 3
Spezia
12 Sept
Spezia
2 : 0
Livorno
06 Sept
Sambenedettese
1 : 2
Spezia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spezia 7 6 1 0 14:4 19
2 Ravenna 7 5 2 0 12:2 17
3 Grosseto 7 4 3 0 13:4 15
4 Reggiana 7 4 2 1 12:6 14
5 Livorno 7 4 2 1 10:8 14
6 Campobasso 7 3 2 2 11:10 11
7 Sassari Torres 7 3 2 2 8:8 11
8 Forli FC 7 2 4 1 13:11 10
9 Perugia 7 3 1 3 6:11 10
10 Guidonia 1937 7 2 3 2 9:7 9
11 Atalanta U23 6 3 0 3 7:9 9
12 Pescara 7 2 2 3 9:11 8
13 Ostiamare 7 2 1 4 8:9 7
14 Gubbio 7 2 1 4 9:13 7
15 Pineto 7 1 4 2 6:10 7
16 Latina 6 1 2 3 5:8 5
17 Vado 7 1 2 4 5:8 5
18 Vis Pesaro 7 1 1 5 8:16 4
19 Pianese 7 0 3 4 4:9 3
20 Sambenedettese 7 0 2 5 8:13 2
Promotion - Serie B 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie C - Group A (Play Out)