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Petone vs Napier City

New Zealand New Zealand

Chatham Cup
Our Tip

Match Events

14' Event
Stanley B.
49' Event
Hurd A.
55' Event
Barclay L.

AI Match Summary

The Chatham Cup game between Petone and Napier City finished 0-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Napier City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Petone
6%
Draws
90%
Napier City
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Napier City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Napier City come out ahead of Petone on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Napier City's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Knockout football tends to sharpen focus — no second leg to fall back on.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 86%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 86%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36.400000000000006%
Petone Clean Sheet 10%
Napier City Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Petone Napier City
Matches Played 11 31
Wins 0 10
Draws 1 5
Losses 10 16
Goals Scored 0.75 1.88
Goals Conceded 2.75 2.38
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.75 2.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 4, 2026 Chatham Cup
Petone vs Napier City
0:4
Sep 24, 2023 National League
Napier City vs Petone
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Petone Compare

Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38

Napier City Compare

Top Goalscorer Stanley B.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Hurd A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Petone 10 / 100
Napier City 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Petone Napier City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick NAP Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:3
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Napier City has conceded goals in 87% of their last 31 outings.

H2H data points to 3.50 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Petone scored in 45% of their last 11 outings.

Away concern: Napier City has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Petone VS Napier City
0.75 Goals Scored 1.88
2.75 Goals Conceded 2.38
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 100%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Fencibles United AFC3
South Auckland Rangers0
Auckland City3
Takapuna Afc0
Melville0
Hibiscus Coast1
Petone0
Napier City4
Dunedin City Royals0
Cashmere Technical9
Island Bay1
Miramar3
Nelson Suburbs FC5
Northern AFC0
Auckland United3
Cambridge1
Quarter-finals
Fencibles United AFC-
Auckland City-
Hibiscus Coast-
Napier City-
Cashmere Technical-
Miramar-
Nelson Suburbs FC-
Auckland United-
Semi-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Final
TBD-
TBD-