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PFC Sochi vs Ufa - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Russia Russia

FNL Fisht Olympic Stadium, Sochi
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

PFC Sochi host Ufa in the FNL. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. PFC Sochi have averaged 1.52 scored and 1.55 conceded recently, against Ufa's 0.93 scored and 1.03 conceded. Past meetings favor PFC Sochi slightly — 5-0-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Nov 22, 2024, ending 5:2. xG projections (1.38 - 1.13) back PFC Sochi to edge this. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Under 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
PFC Sochi
35%
Draws
19%
Ufa
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: PFC Sochi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

46% / Medium Confidence
  • PFC Sochi carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors PFC Sochi here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.6%
PFC Sochi Clean Sheet 68%
Ufa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric PFC Sochi Ufa
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 13 9
Draws 4 9
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1.52 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.03
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 22, 2024 FNL
PFC Sochi vs Ufa
5:2
Aug 25, 2024 FNL
Ufa vs PFC Sochi
3:4
Apr 10, 2022 Premier League
Ufa vs PFC Sochi
1:2
Sep 12, 2021 Premier League
PFC Sochi vs Ufa
3:1
Apr 25, 2021 Premier League
Ufa vs PFC Sochi
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

PFC Sochi 41 / 100
Ufa 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
PFC Sochi Ufa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PFC Sochi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 5.20 goals.

PFC Sochi found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Ufa let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

PFC Sochi went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

PFC Sochi VS Ufa
1.5 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

PFC Sochi

(Home)
18 Sept
PFC Sochi
1 : 1
SKA Khabarovsk
14 Sept
Veles Moscow
1 : 2
PFC Sochi
09 Sept
Dynamo Petersburg
2 : 0
PFC Sochi
05 Sept
PFC Sochi
0 : 1
Pari Nizhny Novgorod
30 Aug
PFC Sochi
2 : 1
Chelyabinsk
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Ufa

(Away)
27 Sept
Ufa
0 : 0
Torpedo Moscow
18 Sept
Chelyabinsk
2 : 1
Ufa
13 Sept
Ufa
2 : 2
Ulyanovsk
09 Sept
Kaluga
1 : 0
Ufa
05 Sept
Ufa
1 : 1
Veles Moscow
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pari Nizhny Novgorod 12 10 1 1 36:14 31
2 Ural 12 7 4 1 20:6 25
3 S. Kostroma 12 7 3 2 16:10 24
4 PFC Sochi 12 7 2 3 21:14 23
5 Veles Moscow 13 7 2 4 17:16 23
6 Torpedo Moscow 12 6 3 3 21:9 21
7 Ufa 12 4 6 2 16:13 18
8 R. Volgograd 12 5 2 5 20:14 17
9 Shinnik Yaroslavl 12 3 7 2 15:13 16
10 Yenisey 12 3 5 4 15:20 14
11 Ulyanovsk 13 4 2 7 16:19 14
12 Arsenal Tula 12 3 4 5 12:22 13
13 Leningradets 12 3 4 5 10:20 13
14 Neftekhimik 12 4 0 8 7:15 12
15 Chelyabinsk 12 3 3 6 13:19 12
16 Kamaz 12 2 3 7 11:19 9
17 Tekstilshtik 12 1 4 7 8:19 7
18 SKA Khabarovsk 12 1 3 8 11:23 6
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premier League (Relegation)