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Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

MLS Subaru Park, Chester, PA
Philadelphia Union Logo

Philadelphia Union

3 - 2
FT
Atlanta United Logo

Atlanta United

Our Tip

Match Events

26'
Mihaj E.
28'
Iloski M.
30' Event
Almiron M.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Philadelphia Union in this MLS matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Philadelphia Union.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Philadelphia Union
20%
Draws
20%
Atlanta United
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Philadelphia Union

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Philadelphia Union have won more games recently than Atlanta United.
  • Model gives Philadelphia Union a 60% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%
Philadelphia Union Clean Sheet 20%
Atlanta United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Philadelphia Union Atlanta United
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 13 9
Draws 7 6
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 2.03 1.32
Goals Conceded 1.59 1.64
Expected Goals (xG) 2.44 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 MLS
Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United
3:2
Mar 14, 2026 MLS
Atlanta United vs Philadelphia Union
3:1
May 17, 2025 MLS
Atlanta United vs Philadelphia Union
0:1
Apr 19, 2025 MLS
Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United
3:0
Sep 28, 2024 MLS
Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Philadelphia Union Compare

Top Goalscorer Iloski M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pierre N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.88
Avg xA / game 1.22

Atlanta United Compare

Top Goalscorer Almiron M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Muyumba T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Philadelphia Union 85 / 100
Atlanta United 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Philadelphia Union Atlanta United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Philadelphia Union Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Philadelphia Union scored in 83% of their last 29 games.

Atlanta United has conceded goals in 86% of their last 28 outings.

Recent resilience: Philadelphia Union stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Philadelphia Union VS Atlanta United
3.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Philadelphia Union

(Home)
10 Oct
Philadelphia Union
2 : 1
Real Salt Lake
26 Sept
Philadelphia Union
4 : 2
Orlando City
20 Sept
Sporting Kansas City
3 : 4
Philadelphia Union
14 Sept
San Diego FC
0 : 5
Philadelphia Union
09 Sept
Philadelphia Union
5 : 0
FC Cincinnati
Page 1 of 6

Atlanta United

(Away)
10 Oct
Atlanta United
1 : 3
FC Cincinnati
26 Sept
Atlanta United
2 : 2
New York City
20 Sept
Portland Timbers
0 : 1
Atlanta United
12 Sept
DC United
0 : 0
Atlanta United
09 Sept
Atlanta United
2 : 3
Orlando City
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 27 15 5 7 60:29 50
2 St. Louis City 27 13 8 6 48:36 47
3 FC Dallas 27 13 8 6 50:42 47
4 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13 6 8 49:39 45
5 Houston Dynamo 27 13 5 9 34:32 44
6 Los Angeles FC 28 11 8 9 43:30 41
7 Seattle Sounders 27 10 8 9 35:35 38
8 Colorado Rapids 27 11 3 13 38:38 36
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 37:44 36
10 Portland Timbers 27 9 5 13 48:51 32
11 Real Salt Lake 27 9 5 13 40:44 32
12 San Diego FC 27 8 8 11 47:47 32
13 Austin FC 27 7 10 10 35:47 31
14 Minnesota United 27 7 8 12 40:49 29
15 Sporting Kansas City 27 6 3 18 32:65 21
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 27 18 6 3 55:21 60
2 Chicago Fire 28 14 6 8 51:40 48
3 New England Revolution 27 14 4 9 45:36 46
4 Inter Miami 27 12 10 5 64:50 46
5 Charlotte FC 27 12 7 8 47:38 43
6 Philadelphia Union 27 11 6 10 54:44 39
7 Orlando City 27 10 4 13 48:64 34
8 New York Red Bulls 27 9 6 12 34:51 33
9 New York City 28 8 9 11 42:38 33
10 FC Cincinnati 26 8 9 9 55:64 33
11 Toronto FC 28 7 11 10 41:52 32
12 DC United 26 6 12 8 34:42 30
13 Columbus Crew 27 8 5 14 39:43 29
14 Atlanta United 27 7 6 14 32:45 27
15 CF Montreal 28 6 6 16 35:56 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)