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Philadelphia Union vs Chicago Fire

USA USA

MLS Subaru Park
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AI Match Summary

Philadelphia Union play Chicago Fire in the MLS. It looks like a close match. Recently, Philadelphia Union averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.63 conceded. Chicago Fire averaged 2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded. In past meetings, Philadelphia Union won 4, Chicago Fire won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Mar 21, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Philadelphia Union and 1.81 for Chicago Fire. This points to a Chicago Fire double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

18%
Philadelphia Union
22%
Draws
60%
Chicago Fire
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Chicago Fire

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Chicago Fire has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Philadelphia Union.
  • Model forecasts a 60% win probability edge for Chicago Fire.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in MLS provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
Philadelphia Union Clean Sheet 11%
Chicago Fire Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Philadelphia Union Chicago Fire
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 9 16
Draws 6 6
Losses 15 8
Goals Scored 1.25 2
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 MLS
Philadelphia Union vs Chicago Fire
1:2
Nov 1, 2025 MLS
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
0:3
Oct 26, 2025 MLS
Philadelphia Union vs Chicago Fire
3:2
Aug 23, 2025 MLS
Philadelphia Union vs Chicago Fire
4:0
Jun 26, 2025 MLS
Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Philadelphia Union Compare

Top Goalscorer Iloski M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Chicago Fire Compare

Top Goalscorer Cuypers H.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bamba J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Philadelphia Union 18 / 100
Chicago Fire 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Philadelphia Union Chicago Fire

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick CHI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Philadelphia Union scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Chicago Fire let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Philadelphia Union went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Chicago Fire lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Philadelphia Union VS Chicago Fire
1.25 Goals Scored 2
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps14102234:1232
2San Jose Earthquakes15102334:1532
3Real Salt Lake1482426:1926
4FC Dallas1574430:2225
5Los Angeles FC1573524:1724
6Seattle Sounders1373317:1124
7Houston Dynamo1471619:2322
8Minnesota United1564518:2222
9Los Angeles Galaxy1555522:2220
10San Diego FC1545630:2717
11Colorado Rapids1551925:2416
12St. Louis City1444616:2016
13Portland Timbers1442822:2814
14Austin FC1535719:3114
15Sporting Kansas City1432914:3611
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Nashville SC14103131:1133
2Inter Miami1594239:2831
3Chicago Fire1482427:1626
4New England Revolution1481522:1825
5New York Red Bulls1564525:3222
6Charlotte FC1563624:2321
7FC Cincinnati1555536:3720
8New York City1554625:2119
9DC United1546521:2518
10Columbus Crew1544721:2316
11CF Montreal1442822:3114
12Orlando City1542923:4414
13Toronto FC1435622:2914
14Atlanta United1432914:2311
15Philadelphia Union15141018:307