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Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

MLS Subaru Park, Chester, PA
Philadelphia Union Logo

Philadelphia Union

5 - 0
FT
FC Cincinnati Logo

FC Cincinnati

Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Nwobodo O.
40'
Evander
43' Event
Sullivan Q.
(Penalty)
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The MLS game between Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati finished 5-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Philadelphia Union.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Philadelphia Union
20%
Draws
20%
FC Cincinnati
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Philadelphia Union

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • Philadelphia Union have managed 2.07 goals a game lately — FC Cincinnati are scoring more at 2.6.
  • Win probability leans Philadelphia Union's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular MLS form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 75%
Over 4.5 Goals 34%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Philadelphia Union Clean Sheet 18%
FC Cincinnati Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Philadelphia Union FC Cincinnati
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 13 13
Draws 7 9
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 2.07 2.6
Goals Conceded 1.54 2.2
Expected Goals (xG) 2.88 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2026 MLS
Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati
5:0
Aug 30, 2025 MLS
FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union
0:1
Mar 2, 2025 MLS
Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati
4:1
Feb 7, 2025 Club Friendly
FC Cincinnati vs Philadelphia Union
4:1
Oct 19, 2024 MLS
Philadelphia Union vs FC Cincinnati
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Philadelphia Union Compare

Top Goalscorer Damiani B.
3 Goals
Avg xG / game 2.22
Avg xA / game 1.44

FC Cincinnati Compare

Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Philadelphia Union 85 / 100
FC Cincinnati 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Philadelphia Union FC Cincinnati

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Philadelphia Union Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Philadelphia Union scored in 82% of their last 28 games.

FC Cincinnati has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.80 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Philadelphia Union remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Philadelphia Union VS FC Cincinnati
3.25 Goals Scored 1.5
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.5
100% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 88%
75% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Philadelphia Union

(Home)
10 Oct
Philadelphia Union
2 : 1
Real Salt Lake
26 Sept
Philadelphia Union
4 : 2
Orlando City
20 Sept
Sporting Kansas City
3 : 4
Philadelphia Union
14 Sept
San Diego FC
0 : 5
Philadelphia Union
09 Sept
Philadelphia Union
5 : 0
FC Cincinnati
Page 1 of 6

FC Cincinnati

(Away)
10 Oct
Atlanta United
1 : 3
FC Cincinnati
26 Sept
CF Montreal
3 : 1
FC Cincinnati
20 Sept
Houston Dynamo
2 : 2
FC Cincinnati
12 Sept
FC Cincinnati
3 : 3
Charlotte FC
09 Sept
Philadelphia Union
5 : 0
FC Cincinnati
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 28 15 6 7 61:30 51
2 St. Louis City 27 13 8 6 48:36 47
3 FC Dallas 28 13 8 7 52:45 47
4 San Jose Earthquakes 28 13 7 8 50:40 46
5 Houston Dynamo 28 13 6 9 36:34 45
6 Los Angeles FC 29 11 9 9 44:31 42
7 Seattle Sounders 28 11 8 9 38:35 41
8 Colorado Rapids 28 11 4 13 39:39 37
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 37:44 36
10 Portland Timbers 28 9 6 13 51:54 33
11 Real Salt Lake 28 9 5 14 41:46 32
12 San Diego FC 28 8 8 12 48:51 32
13 Austin FC 28 7 10 11 36:51 31
14 Minnesota United 28 7 9 12 42:51 30
15 Sporting Kansas City 28 6 4 18 35:68 22
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 28 19 6 3 59:22 63
2 Inter Miami 28 13 10 5 68:50 49
3 Chicago Fire 28 14 6 8 51:40 48
4 New England Revolution 28 14 4 10 45:39 46
5 Charlotte FC 28 13 7 8 50:40 46
6 Philadelphia Union 28 12 6 10 56:45 42
7 Orlando City 28 11 4 13 51:66 37
8 New York Red Bulls 28 10 6 12 38:52 36
9 FC Cincinnati 27 9 9 9 58:65 36
10 New York City 28 8 9 11 42:38 33
11 Toronto FC 28 7 11 10 41:52 32
12 DC United 27 6 12 9 34:46 30
13 Columbus Crew 28 8 5 15 41:46 29
14 Atlanta United 28 7 6 15 33:48 27
15 CF Montreal 28 6 6 16 35:56 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)