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Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

MLS Subaru Park, Chester, PA
Philadelphia Union Logo

Philadelphia Union

4 - 2
FT
Orlando City Logo

Orlando City

Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Iloski M.
(Penalty)
12'
Atuesta E.
19' Event
Iloski M.
Assist: Vassilev I.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The MLS game between Philadelphia Union and Orlando City finished 4-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Philadelphia Union.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Philadelphia Union
15%
Draws
24%
Orlando City
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Philadelphia Union

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Orlando City carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Philadelphia Union are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Philadelphia Union Clean Sheet 16%
Orlando City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Philadelphia Union Orlando City
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 12 14
Draws 7 3
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 2.07 2.15
Goals Conceded 1.56 1.89
Expected Goals (xG) 2.50 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 MLS
Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City
4:2
May 13, 2026 MLS
Orlando City vs Philadelphia Union
4:3
Apr 5, 2025 MLS
Philadelphia Union vs Orlando City
0:0
Feb 23, 2025 MLS
Orlando City vs Philadelphia Union
2:4
Oct 2, 2024 MLS
Orlando City vs Philadelphia Union
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Philadelphia Union Compare

Top Goalscorer Iloski M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Vassilev I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.92
Avg xA / game 1.25

Orlando City Compare

Top Goalscorer Angulo I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ojeda M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Philadelphia Union 84 / 100
Orlando City 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Philadelphia Union Orlando City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Philadelphia Union Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Philadelphia Union found the back of the net in 81% of recent matches (27 games).

Orlando City let in goals in 81% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 4.40 goals.

Philadelphia Union has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Philadelphia Union VS Orlando City
3 Goals Scored 2.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Philadelphia Union

(Home)
26 Sept
Philadelphia Union
4 : 2
Orlando City
20 Sept
Sporting Kansas City
3 : 4
Philadelphia Union
14 Sept
San Diego FC
0 : 5
Philadelphia Union
09 Sept
Philadelphia Union
5 : 0
FC Cincinnati
05 Sept
Philadelphia Union
2 : 0
CF Montreal
Page 1 of 6

Orlando City

(Away)
26 Sept
Philadelphia Union
4 : 2
Orlando City
19 Sept
New England Revolution
4 : 2
Orlando City
16 Sept
Columbus Crew
2 : 1
Orlando City
12 Sept
Orlando City
3 : 0
Toronto FC
09 Sept
Atlanta United
2 : 3
Orlando City
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 27 15 5 7 60:29 50
2 St. Louis City 27 13 8 6 48:36 47
3 FC Dallas 27 13 8 6 50:42 47
4 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13 6 8 49:39 45
5 Houston Dynamo 27 13 5 9 34:32 44
6 Los Angeles FC 28 11 8 9 43:30 41
7 Seattle Sounders 27 10 8 9 35:35 38
8 Colorado Rapids 27 11 3 13 38:38 36
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 37:44 36
10 Portland Timbers 27 9 5 13 48:51 32
11 Real Salt Lake 27 9 5 13 40:44 32
12 San Diego FC 27 8 8 11 47:47 32
13 Austin FC 27 7 10 10 35:47 31
14 Minnesota United 27 7 8 12 40:49 29
15 Sporting Kansas City 27 6 3 18 32:65 21
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 27 18 6 3 55:21 60
2 New England Revolution 27 14 4 9 45:36 46
3 Inter Miami 27 12 10 5 64:50 46
4 Chicago Fire 27 13 6 8 49:39 45
5 Charlotte FC 27 12 7 8 47:38 43
6 Philadelphia Union 27 11 6 10 54:44 39
7 Orlando City 27 10 4 13 48:64 34
8 New York Red Bulls 27 9 6 12 34:51 33
9 New York City 27 8 9 10 41:36 33
10 FC Cincinnati 26 8 9 9 55:64 33
11 DC United 26 6 12 8 34:42 30
12 Columbus Crew 27 8 5 14 39:43 29
13 Toronto FC 27 6 11 10 39:51 29
14 Atlanta United 27 7 6 14 32:45 27
15 CF Montreal 27 6 6 15 34:54 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)