Sport Picks

Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA

MLS Subaru Park, Chester, PA

Toronto FC

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Philadelphia Union host Toronto FC in the MLS. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Toronto FC have shipped 2 goals a game lately, while Philadelphia Union have conceded 1.48 and scored 2.03. Past meetings favor Philadelphia Union slightly — 1-1-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 22, 2026, ending 3:3. xG projections (2.69 - 1.44) back Philadelphia Union to edge this. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%

Philadelphia Union

30%

Draws

41%

Toronto FC

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Toronto FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence

Philadelphia Union carry the better recent record into this one.
Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 81%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%

Over 1.5 Goals 100%

Over 2.5 Goals 81%

Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 25%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%

Philadelphia Union Clean Sheet 16%

Toronto FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Philadelphia Union	Toronto FC
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	13	7
Draws	8	11
Losses	8	11
Goals Scored	2.03	1.59
Goals Conceded	1.48	2
Expected Goals (xG)	2.69	1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 22, 2026 MLS

Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union

3:3

Aug 9, 2025 MLS

Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC

1:1

May 28, 2025 MLS

Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union

1:2

Jul 13, 2024 MLS

Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union

2:1

May 29, 2024 MLS

Philadelphia Union vs Toronto FC

0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Philadelphia Union 30 / 100

Toronto FC 30 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Philadelphia Union Toronto FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Philadelphia Union Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Toronto FC has conceded goals in 90% of their last 29 outings.

Philadelphia Union's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Philadelphia Union went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Philadelphia Union VS Toronto FC

3.25 Goals Scored 1.5

1.38 Goals Conceded 2.13

100% Over 1.5 100%

100% Over 2.5 75%

75% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History