Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Philippines vs Thailand

Asia Asia

ASEAN Championship 2024 Rizal Memorial Stadium, Manila
Our Tip

Match Events

21' Event
Reyes S.
Assist: Monis A.
25'
Kristensen B.
45' Event
Bureerat S.
Assist: Gustavsson P.

AI Match Summary

This match ends 2-1, with Philippines advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Philippines
15%
Draws
46%
Thailand
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Thailand

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Philippines haven't matched Thailand's recent run of results.
  • Philippines are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Thailand arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Thailand, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Thailand have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Philippines Clean Sheet 15%
Thailand Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Philippines Thailand
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 12 20
Draws 5 4
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 1.83 2.42
Goals Conceded 1.48 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 4, 2026 ASEAN Championship
Philippines vs Thailand
0:1
Dec 30, 2024 ASEAN Championship
Thailand vs Philippines
3:1
Dec 27, 2024 ASEAN Championship
Philippines vs Thailand
2:1
Oct 11, 2024 Kings Cup (Thailand)
Thailand vs Philippines
3:1
Dec 26, 2022 ASEAN Championship
Thailand vs Philippines
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Philippines Compare

Top Goalscorer Reyes S.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Linares K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Thailand Compare

Top Goalscorer Bureerat S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Philippines 57 / 100
Thailand 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Philippines Thailand

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Philippines Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Philippines scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Thailand's defensive record shows goals conceded in 58% of 31 matches.

Philippines has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Philippines VS Thailand
1.88 Goals Scored 2
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.63
50% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Philippines

(Home)
08 Aug
Malaysia
1 : 0
Philippines
04 Aug
Philippines
0 : 1
Thailand
01 Aug
Laos
1 : 4
Philippines
28 Jul
Philippines
1 : 4
Myanmar
09 Jun
Philippines
5 : 1
Myanmar
Page 1 of 6

Thailand

(Away)
26 Aug
Vietnam
2 : 2
Thailand
22 Aug
Thailand
0 : 2
Vietnam
18 Aug
Thailand
1 : 2
Singapore
15 Aug
Singapore
1 : 3
Thailand
08 Aug
Thailand
2 : 0
Myanmar
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Singapore 1
Vietnam 5
Philippines 3
Thailand 4
Final
Vietnam 5
Thailand 3