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Pieta vs Mgarr

Malta Malta

Challenge League 2025/2026 Centenary Stadium, Ta' Qali
Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
Brincat J.
45' Event
Cristhyan Noto

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Challenge League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Pieta
6%
Draws
4%
Mgarr
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Pieta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Mgarr haven't matched Pieta's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Pieta's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Challenge League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Pieta Clean Sheet 15%
Mgarr Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pieta Mgarr
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 16 12
Draws 6 7
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 1.13 1.63
Goals Conceded 1.5 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 13, 2025 Challenge League
Pieta vs Mgarr
1:1
Feb 22, 2025 Challenge League
Mgarr vs Pieta
3:2
Nov 23, 2024 Challenge League
Mgarr vs Pieta
4:0
Feb 13, 2022 Challenge League
Mgarr vs Pieta
0:2
Nov 23, 2021 Challenge League
Pieta vs Mgarr
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pieta Compare

Top Goalscorer Brincat J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Mgarr Compare

Top Goalscorer Cristhyan Noto
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pieta 84 / 100
Mgarr 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pieta Mgarr

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick PIE Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pieta scored in 94% of their last 31 games.

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Mgarr's defensive record shows goals conceded in 71% of 31 matches.

Recent resilience: Pieta stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Pieta VS Mgarr
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Pieta

(Home)
19 Apr
Pieta
2 : 2
St. Andrews
12 Apr
Sirens
3 : 4
Pieta
04 Apr
Fgura
0 : 4
Pieta
17 Mar
Pieta
0 : 1
Melita
14 Mar
Birzebbuga
2 : 2
Pieta
Page 1 of 7

Mgarr

(Away)
18 Apr
Zurrieq
4 : 2
Mgarr
12 Apr
Mgarr
0 : 2
Gudja
06 Apr
Mgarr
1 : 1
Santa Lucia
15 Mar
Mgarr
1 : 1
Vittoriosa
08 Mar
Zebbug
0 : 2
Mgarr
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Balzan FC15112237:1035
2Melita15102336:1732
3Birzebbuga15101429:1531
4Sirens1592439:1929
5Swieqi1592432:2329
6Fgura1581633:2425
7Pieta1573527:2124
8St. Andrews1572619:2323
9Mgarr1564528:2422
10Gudja1557316:1322
11Santa Lucia1546527:2518
12Zurrieq1542921:2714
13Vittoriosa1533917:2412
14Marsa1524918:288
15Zebbug1522119:378
16Mtarfa1511139:67-2
Promotion - Challenge League 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Challenge League 2025/2026 (Relegation Group)