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Pieta vs Naxxar Lions Prediction & H2H Stats

Malta Malta

Challenge League
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Joelson
33' Event
Gatt L.
34' Event
Agius L.

AI Match Summary

The Challenge League game between Pieta and Naxxar Lions finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pieta.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Pieta
20%
Draws
23%
Naxxar Lions
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Pieta

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Pieta carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Pieta are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Challenge League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Pieta Clean Sheet 20%
Naxxar Lions Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pieta Naxxar Lions
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 12
Draws 5 6
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.87 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.43 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Challenge League
Pieta vs Naxxar Lions
3:2
Jan 11, 2021 Challenge League
Pieta vs Naxxar Lions
2:1
Feb 9, 2020 Challenge League
Pieta vs Naxxar Lions
0:4
Sep 21, 2019 Challenge League
Naxxar Lions vs Pieta
1:1
Jan 15, 2017 Challenge League
Naxxar Lions vs Pieta
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pieta Compare

Top Goalscorer Gatt L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Vella J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Naxxar Lions Compare

Top Goalscorer Joelson
1 Goals
Assists Leader Agius L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pieta 85 / 100
Naxxar Lions 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pieta Naxxar Lions

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pieta Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Pieta found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (30 games).

Naxxar Lions let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Pieta remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Pieta VS Naxxar Lions
2.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
63% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Pieta

(Home)
18 Sept
Swieqi
3 : 2
Pieta
12 Sept
Pieta
3 : 2
Naxxar Lions
19 Apr
Pieta
2 : 2
St. Andrews
12 Apr
Sirens
3 : 4
Pieta
04 Apr
Fgura
0 : 4
Pieta
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Naxxar Lions

(Away)
20 Sept
Naxxar Lions
3 : 1
Zebbug
12 Sept
Pieta
3 : 2
Naxxar Lions
10 May
Naxxar Lions
0 : 1
Mosta FC
02 May
Marsaxlokk
3 : 2
Naxxar Lions
26 Apr
Gzira
0 : 0
Naxxar Lions
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tarxien 2 2 0 0 6:2 6
2 Victoria Hotspurs 2 2 0 0 5:1 6
3 Fgura 2 1 1 0 5:1 4
4 Vittoriosa 2 1 1 0 2:0 4
5 Swieqi 2 1 1 0 6:5 4
6 Sirens 2 1 1 0 2:1 4
7 Melita 2 1 0 1 4:2 3
8 Naxxar Lions 2 1 0 1 5:4 3
9 Pieta 2 1 0 1 5:5 3
10 Mgarr 2 1 0 1 3:4 3
11 Santa Lucia 2 0 2 0 1:1 2
12 Attard 2 0 1 1 4:6 1
13 St. Andrews 2 0 1 1 1:4 1
14 Zurrieq 2 0 0 2 1:3 0
15 Gudja 2 0 0 2 0:5 0
16 Zebbug 2 0 0 2 1:7 0
Promotion - Challenge League (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Challenge League (Relegation Group)