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Piratas vs Club Atletico Morelia

Mexico Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Luis "Pirata" de La Fuente, Boca del Río
Sun, Aug 2, 2026
VS
01:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Piratas host Club Atletico Morelia in the Liga de Expansion MX. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Club Atletico Morelia have shipped 1.13 goals a game lately, while Piratas have conceded 0 and scored 0. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. xG projections (1.17 - 1.18) back Club Atletico Morelia to edge this. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Piratas
20%
Draws
38%
Club Atletico Morelia
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Piratas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Club Atletico Morelia come out ahead of Piratas on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Piratas's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Regular Liga de Expansion MX form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 32%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Piratas Clean Sheet 20%
Club Atletico Morelia Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Piratas Club Atletico Morelia
Matches Played 1 32
Wins 0 13
Draws 1 9
Losses 0 10
Goals Scored 0 1.25
Goals Conceded 0 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Piratas 42 / 100
Club Atletico Morelia 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Piratas Club Atletico Morelia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Club Atletico Morelia conceded in 63% of 32 recent games.

Piratas scored in 0% of their last 1 games.

Piratas has registered 1 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Away concern: Club Atletico Morelia has suffered 2 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Piratas VS Club Atletico Morelia
0 Goals Scored 1.25
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Piratas

(Home)
26 Jul
Jaiba Brava
0 : 0
Piratas

Club Atletico Morelia

(Away)
26 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
4 : 2
Atletico La Paz
05 Jul
Club Atletico Morelia
3 : 3
Cruz Azul
20 Jun
Necaxa
1 : 0
Club Atletico Morelia
26 Apr
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0
Zacatecas Mineros
23 Apr
Zacatecas Mineros
3 : 0
Club Atletico Morelia
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Alacranes de Durango22002:06
2Correcaminos21106:44
3Zacatecas Mineros21106:44
4Venados FC11003:03
5Club Atletico Morelia11004:23
6Leones Negros11004:23
7Dorados de Sinaloa11002:03
8Cruz Azul Hidalgo10100:01
9Jaiba Brava10100:01
10Tapatio10100:01
11Piratas10100:01
12Cancun00000:00
13Atletico La Paz20022:50
14Tepatitlan de Morelos20021:40
15Tlaxcala20023:70
16Alebrijes de Oaxaca20020:50
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)