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Piratas vs Club Atletico Morelia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Mexico Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX Estadio Luis "Pirata" Fuente, Boca del Río
Our Tip

Match Events

4'
del Campo R.
5' Event
Figueroa B.
Penalty Missed
45'
Gonzalez R.

AI Match Summary

The Liga de Expansion MX game between Piratas and Club Atletico Morelia finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Piratas.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Piratas
30%
Draws
37%
Club Atletico Morelia
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Club Atletico Morelia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Club Atletico Morelia come out ahead of Piratas on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • Regular Liga de Expansion MX form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
Piratas Clean Sheet 16%
Club Atletico Morelia Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Piratas Club Atletico Morelia
Matches Played 12 30
Wins 5 15
Draws 3 5
Losses 4 10
Goals Scored 1.5 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 2, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Piratas vs Club Atletico Morelia
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Piratas 31 / 100
Club Atletico Morelia 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Piratas Club Atletico Morelia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Piratas found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (12 games).

Club Atletico Morelia let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.

Piratas has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Piratas VS Club Atletico Morelia
1.5 Goals Scored 1.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Piratas

(Home)
10 Oct
Tlaxcala
4 : 2
Piratas
04 Oct
Piratas
4 : 0
Alebrijes de Oaxaca
25 Sept
Zacatecas Mineros
3 : 0
Piratas
19 Sept
Piratas
2 : 1
Venados FC
11 Sept
Cruz Azul Hidalgo
1 : 1
Piratas
Page 1 of 3

Club Atletico Morelia

(Away)
10 Oct
Tepatitlan de Morelos
1 : 1
Club Atletico Morelia
04 Oct
Club Atletico Morelia
1 : 1
Tlaxcala
26 Sept
Venados FC
2 : 1
Club Atletico Morelia
20 Sept
Club Atletico Morelia
2 : 0
Leones Negros
13 Sept
Zacatecas Mineros
0 : 1
Club Atletico Morelia
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Leones Negros 12 7 3 2 28:17 24
2 Atletico La Paz 12 7 2 3 28:15 23
3 Club Atletico Morelia 12 7 2 3 22:13 23
4 Venados FC 12 6 2 4 27:22 20
5 Zacatecas Mineros 12 5 3 4 25:21 18
6 Cancun 12 5 3 4 21:17 18
7 Piratas 12 5 3 4 18:14 18
8 Alacranes de Durango 12 5 3 4 11:11 18
9 Correcaminos 12 4 4 4 20:20 16
10 Tlaxcala 12 4 3 5 23:25 15
11 Tapatio 11 4 2 5 19:19 14
12 Dorados de Sinaloa 12 3 4 5 21:23 13
13 Alebrijes de Oaxaca 12 4 1 7 10:23 13
14 Jaiba Brava 12 3 3 6 12:19 12
15 Cruz Azul Hidalgo 12 2 5 5 14:19 11
16 Tepatitlan de Morelos 11 2 1 8 9:30 7
Promotion - Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura - Play Offs)