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Stadium Background

Pistoiese vs Arconatese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group D
Our Tip

Match Events

6'
Constant G.
8' Event
Motti M.
Penalty Missed
30' Event
Campagna F.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group D game between Pistoiese and Arconatese finished 5-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Pistoiese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Pistoiese
30%
Draws
12%
Arconatese
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Pistoiese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Arconatese haven't matched Pistoiese's recent run of results.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Pistoiese taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 41.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Pistoiese Clean Sheet 20%
Arconatese Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Pistoiese Arconatese
Matches Played 35 28
Wins 23 5
Draws 8 9
Losses 4 14
Goals Scored 1.8 0.89
Goals Conceded 0.57 1.64
Expected Goals (xG) 1.83 0.90
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Serie D - Group D
Pistoiese vs Arconatese
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Pistoiese Compare

Top Goalscorer Rossi M.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Campagna F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.41
Avg xA / game 0.92

Arconatese Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.5

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Pistoiese 85 / 100
Arconatese 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Pistoiese Arconatese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Pistoiese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Arconatese let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Pistoiese's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 35 recent games.

Pistoiese has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Pistoiese VS Arconatese
2 Goals Scored 0.67
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.67
75% Over 1.5 67%
63% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 33%

Recent Form & Match History

Pistoiese

(Home)
16 Sept
Pistoiese
5 : 0
Arconatese
13 Sept
Crema
1 : 3
Pistoiese
06 Sept
Pistoiese
2 : 0
Solbiatese
22 Aug
Pistoiese
0 : 1
Siena
14 Aug
Seravezza Pozzi
0 : 0
Pistoiese
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Arconatese

(Away)
16 Sept
Pistoiese
5 : 0
Arconatese
12 Sept
Arconatese
1 : 1
Correggese
06 Sept
USD Casatese
2 : 1
Arconatese
13 Aug
Arconatese
2 : 2
AC Leon
04 May
Breno
4 : 1
Arconatese
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Pistoiese 4 4 0 0 11:1 12
2 Pro Patria 4 4 0 0 10:3 12
3 Pro Sesto 4 3 0 1 10:3 9
4 Lentigione 4 3 0 1 6:4 9
5 Sant'Angelo 4 2 2 0 6:2 8
6 USD Casatese 4 2 1 1 6:4 7
7 Cittadella Vis Modena 4 2 1 1 4:3 7
8 Castellanzese 4 2 0 2 7:4 6
9 Varese FC 4 1 2 1 4:3 5
10 Varesina 4 1 1 2 5:6 4
11 Tropical Coriano 4 1 1 2 3:4 4
12 Correggese 4 1 1 2 4:8 4
13 Pavia 3 0 3 0 0:0 3
14 Oltrepo 3 1 0 2 2:3 3
15 Solbiatese 4 0 2 2 1:6 2
16 Crema 4 0 1 3 1:8 1
17 Arconatese 4 0 1 3 2:11 1
18 US Pontedera 4 0 0 4 3:12 0
Promotion - Serie D - Group D (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group D (Play Out)