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Platense vs Lobos UPNFM

Honduras Honduras

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Excelsior, Puerto Cortes
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Match Events

4' Event
Pena K.
14'
Pena K.
28'
Mena Velasquez O. J.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Nacional 2025/2026 game between Platense and Lobos UPNFM finished 4-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Platense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Platense
30%
Draws
23%
Lobos UPNFM
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Platense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Platense come out ahead of Lobos UPNFM on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Platense's way, sitting at 36%.
  • Regular Liga Nacional 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Platense Clean Sheet 17%
Lobos UPNFM Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Platense Lobos UPNFM
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 7 6
Draws 8 10
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 1.24 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.66 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Liga Nacional
Platense vs Lobos UPNFM
4:1
Feb 26, 2026 Liga Nacional
Lobos UPNFM vs Platense
1:0
Oct 18, 2025 Liga Nacional
Lobos UPNFM vs Platense
1:1
Aug 10, 2025 Liga Nacional
Platense vs Lobos UPNFM
4:1
Apr 3, 2022 Liga Nacional
Platense vs Lobos UPNFM
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Platense Compare

Top Goalscorer Solano E.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Puerto E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Lobos UPNFM Compare

Top Goalscorer Pena K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Platense 36 / 100
Lobos UPNFM 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Platense Lobos UPNFM

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Platense's goal record stands at 62% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Lobos UPNFM conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Lobos UPNFM lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Platense VS Lobos UPNFM
0.88 Goals Scored 0.88
1.88 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Platense

(Home)
29 Aug
Platense
2 : 1
Atletico Independiente
23 Aug
CD Choloma
2 : 0
Platense
15 Aug
Genesis FC
3 : 0
Platense
08 Aug
Platense
1 : 1
Marathon
01 Aug
Platense
0 : 3
Real Espana
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Lobos UPNFM

(Away)
29 Aug
Juticalpa
1 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
22 Aug
Motagua
4 : 1
Lobos UPNFM
15 Aug
Lobos UPNFM
2 : 2
Estrella
08 Aug
Lobos UPNFM
1 : 1
Olancho
03 Aug
Olimpia
2 : 0
Lobos UPNFM
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Real Espana 20 11 7 2 37:25 40
2 Motagua 20 11 6 3 36:17 39
3 Olimpia 20 11 5 4 35:17 38
4 Olancho 20 8 8 4 28:16 32
5 Marathon 20 7 6 7 23:19 27
6 Genesis FC 20 6 5 9 20:28 23
7 CD Choloma 20 6 5 9 23:32 23
8 Platense 20 5 6 9 26:29 21
9 Lobos UPNFM 20 5 6 9 23:30 21
10 Juticalpa 20 4 6 10 18:41 18
11 Victoria 20 4 4 12 25:40 16
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Triangulares)