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Platges de Calvia vs El Espinar Sant Rafel

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2021/2022
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Platges de Calvia play El Espinar Sant Rafel in the Tercera RFEF - Group 11 2021/2022. It looks like a close match. Recently, Platges de Calvia averaged 1.48 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. El Espinar Sant Rafel averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.69 conceded. In past meetings, Platges de Calvia won 3, El Espinar Sant Rafel won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 24, 2022 ended 5:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.10 for Platges de Calvia and 1.19 for El Espinar Sant Rafel. This points to a Platges de Calvia double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Platges de Calvia
24%
Draws
24%
El Espinar Sant Rafel
Draw rate projection: 24% Favored: Platges de Calvia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence
  • Platges de Calvia picked up more points recently compared to El Espinar Sant Rafel.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.10 vs 1.19 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 47%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35%
Platges de Calvia Clean Sheet 20%
El Espinar Sant Rafel Clean Sheet 14%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Platges de Calvia El Espinar Sant Rafel
Matches Played 40 32
Wins 19 7
Draws 5 7
Losses 16 18
Goals Scored 1.48 0.97
Goals Conceded 1.07 1.69

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 24, 2022 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Platges de Calvia vs El Espinar Sant Rafel
5:0
Dec 22, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
El Espinar Sant Rafel vs Platges de Calvia
0:0
Mar 10, 2021 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
Platges de Calvia vs El Espinar Sant Rafel
3:1
Oct 25, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
El Espinar Sant Rafel vs Platges de Calvia
0:1
May 17, 2020 Tercera RFEF - Group 11
El Espinar Sant Rafel vs Platges de Calvia
0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Platges de Calvia 51 / 100
El Espinar Sant Rafel 24 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Platges de Calvia El Espinar Sant Rafel

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Platges de Calvia or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +18%
2.27
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.7%
2.44
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Platges de Calvia attacking → ← attacking El Espinar Sant Rafel

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Platges de Calvia scored in 63% of their last 40 games.

El Espinar Sant Rafel let in goals in 75% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Platges de Calvia went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

El Espinar Sant Rafel lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

62 Points in last 5 28
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.00
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Mallorca B403253105:27101
2Manacor402641074:4282
3UD Poblense40248889:2480
4Platges de Calvia402211756:2777
5Llosetense40229962:3675
6Santanyi402361166:4675
7Constancia402091154:3869
8PE Sant Jordi402081257:4668
9Portmany4017111255:5162
10Collerense401771645:4958
11Soller401691546:5257
12Binissalem4013121540:4451
13Mercadal4011121754:5145
14Inter Ibiza401272151:6243
15Rotlet Molinar401192035:5342
16El Espinar Sant Rafel4010102048:6440
17Campos4010102038:6440
18Felanitx409112043:6538
19Serverense40872535:7431
20Murense40582731:7623
21Son Veri40433328:12115