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Plus Ultra vs Base Abaran

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Tercera Division - Group 13 2010/2011
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AI Match Summary

The Tercera Division - Group 13 2010/2011 game between Plus Ultra and Base Abaran finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Base Abaran.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Plus Ultra
30%
Draws
58%
Base Abaran
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Base Abaran

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Base Abaran carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Base Abaran are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Tercera Division - Group 13 2010/2011 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Plus Ultra Clean Sheet 10%
Base Abaran Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Plus Ultra Base Abaran
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 3 5
Draws 2 6
Losses 27 19
Goals Scored 0.72 1.2
Goals Conceded 2.75 2.2
Expected Goals (xG) 0.85 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 15, 2012 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Plus Ultra vs Base Abaran
3:2
Nov 27, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Base Abaran vs Plus Ultra
0:1
Apr 3, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Plus Ultra vs Base Abaran
0:1
Nov 14, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Base Abaran vs Plus Ultra
0:0
Feb 21, 2010 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Base Abaran vs Plus Ultra
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Plus Ultra 18 / 100
Base Abaran 57 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Plus Ultra Base Abaran

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Base Abaran Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Base Abaran conceded in 93% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Plus Ultra's goal record stands at 50% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Plus Ultra went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Plus Ultra VS -
0.5 Goals Scored 0
2.88 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Plus Ultra

(Home)
11 May
Plus Ultra
3 : 3
Caravaca
04 May
Minerva
4 : 0
Plus Ultra
27 Apr
Plus Ultra
1 : 2
Muleno CF
20 Apr
E.G. El Palmar
5 : 0
Plus Ultra
12 Apr
Plus Ultra
0 : 1
Molinense
Page 1 of 7

Base Abaran

(Away)
13 May
Aguilas FC
7 : 3
Base Abaran
06 May
Base Abaran
3 : 3
Ciudad Cieza
29 Apr
Pinatar
1 : 2
Base Abaran
22 Apr
Base Abaran
2 : 2
Club Edeco Fortuna
15 Apr
Plus Ultra
3 : 2
Base Abaran
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UCAM Murcia 38 27 5 6 81:22 86
2 Real Murcia B 38 25 9 4 69:18 84
3 Racing Cartagena Mar Menor FC 38 25 8 5 85:28 83
4 Cartagena La Union 38 25 6 7 72:36 81
5 Ciudad Cieza 38 25 5 8 74:28 80
6 Bala Azul 38 18 12 8 59:45 66
7 Lorca FC 38 17 9 12 58:51 60
8 CA Pulpileno 38 16 9 13 53:42 57
9 Molina 38 15 8 15 60:45 53
10 Pinatar 38 13 13 12 50:51 52
11 Club Edeco Fortuna 38 15 7 16 39:57 52
12 Plus Ultra 38 14 6 18 44:57 48
13 Santomera 38 12 9 17 43:57 45
14 Cartagena FC UCAM 38 11 10 17 43:61 43
15 Moratalla 38 11 8 19 44:69 41
16 Calasparra FC 38 11 8 19 45:64 41
17 Base Abaran 38 9 9 20 28:47 36
18 FC Puente Tocinos 38 9 6 23 42:85 33
19 Beniel 38 4 3 31 32:93 15
20 Lorca Deportiva 38 2 2 34 7:72 8
Promotion - Tercera Division - Play Offs 2010/2011 (Main)
Promotion - Tercera Division - Promotion Play Offs 2010/2011 (Main)