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Plus Ultra vs Montecasillas Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Lengua S.
30' Event
Garcia A.
85' Event
Carrasco R.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 game between Plus Ultra and Montecasillas finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Plus Ultra.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Plus Ultra
15%
Draws
64%
Montecasillas
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Montecasillas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

21% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Montecasillas come out ahead of Plus Ultra on wins alone.
  • Model gives Plus Ultra a 21% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Plus Ultra Clean Sheet 10%
Montecasillas Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Plus Ultra Montecasillas
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 3 7
Draws 2 2
Losses 27 21
Goals Scored 0.78 0.93
Goals Conceded 2.72 2.57
Expected Goals (xG) 0.85 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 7, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Plus Ultra vs Montecasillas
2:1
Nov 18, 2023 Tercera RFEF - Group 13
Montecasillas vs Plus Ultra
0:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Plus Ultra Compare

Top Goalscorer Garcia A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Carrasco R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.42

Montecasillas Compare

Top Goalscorer Lengua S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Plus Ultra 38 / 100
Montecasillas 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Plus Ultra Montecasillas

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Plus Ultra Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montecasillas has conceded goals in 87% of their last 30 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.50 goals when they meet.

Montecasillas lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Plus Ultra scored in 50% of their last 32 outings.

Scoring Trends

Plus Ultra VS -
0.5 Goals Scored 0
2.88 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Plus Ultra

(Home)
11 May
Plus Ultra
3 : 3
Caravaca
04 May
Minerva
4 : 0
Plus Ultra
27 Apr
Plus Ultra
1 : 2
Muleno CF
20 Apr
E.G. El Palmar
5 : 0
Plus Ultra
12 Apr
Plus Ultra
0 : 1
Molinense
Page 1 of 7

Montecasillas

(Away)
12 May
Ciudad de Murcia
0 : 1
Montecasillas
04 May
Montecasillas
1 : 3
Molinense
01 May
Caravaca
8 : 0
Montecasillas
27 Apr
Montecasillas
1 : 7
Lorca Deportiva
21 Apr
UCAM Murcia B
1 : 0
Montecasillas
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Deportiva Minera 34 24 6 4 53:19 78
2 Real Murcia B 34 20 8 6 67:33 68
3 Ciudad Cieza 34 19 11 4 44:24 68
4 UCAM Murcia B 34 19 5 10 42:24 62
5 Caravaca 34 18 7 9 60:32 61
6 Lorca Deportiva 34 17 8 9 64:30 59
7 Molinense 34 18 5 11 60:34 59
8 CA Pulpileno 34 13 13 8 39:23 52
9 Muleno CF 34 12 7 15 37:42 43
10 Racing Murcia 34 11 7 16 36:51 40
11 Plus Ultra 34 12 2 20 43:56 38
12 E.G. El Palmar 34 9 9 16 33:52 36
13 Bullense 34 10 6 18 40:65 36
14 Balsicas Atletico 34 9 9 16 35:53 36
15 Alcantarilla 34 10 6 18 34:41 36
16 Ciudad de Murcia 34 7 9 18 28:43 30
17 CD Algar 34 7 8 19 31:65 29
18 Montecasillas 34 7 2 25 31:90 23
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 13 2023/2024 (Play Offs)