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Plymouth vs Burton - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

England England

League One Home Park, Plymouth
Our Tip

Match Events

23'
Tilt C.
46'
Sub
Adom K. In: Dennis M.
Out: Adom K.
56'
Evans W.

AI Match Summary

The League One game between Plymouth and Burton finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Burton.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Plymouth
15%
Draws
28%
Burton
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Plymouth

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Plymouth carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Plymouth's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular League One form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Plymouth Clean Sheet 17%
Burton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Plymouth Burton
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 20 8
Draws 4 10
Losses 5 11
Goals Scored 2.03 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.17 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 2.19 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 26, 2026 League One
Plymouth vs Burton
0:1
Jan 4, 2026 League One
Plymouth vs Burton
3:0
Sep 27, 2025 League One
Burton vs Plymouth
0:4
Apr 29, 2023 League One
Plymouth vs Burton
1:0
Nov 19, 2022 League One
Burton vs Plymouth
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Plymouth Compare

Avg xG / game 1.68
Avg xA / game 1.09

Burton Compare

Top Goalscorer Armer J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Plymouth 84 / 100
Burton 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Plymouth Burton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Plymouth Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Plymouth found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (29 games).

Burton has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Plymouth went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Plymouth VS Burton
2.5 Goals Scored 1.5
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Plymouth

(Home)
10 Oct
Plymouth
2 : 1
AFC Wimbledon
06 Oct
Newport
2 : 3
Plymouth
03 Oct
Leyton Orient
0 : 2
Plymouth
26 Sept
Plymouth
0 : 1
Burton
22 Sept
Plymouth
5 : 1
Crystal Palace U21
Page 1 of 6

Burton

(Away)
10 Oct
Doncaster
1 : 0
Burton
06 Oct
Grimsby
0 : 1
Burton
03 Oct
Burton
1 : 3
Huddersfield
26 Sept
Plymouth
0 : 1
Burton
22 Sept
Burton
1 : 2
Nottingham U21
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Plymouth 10 6 1 3 18:12 19
2 Bradford City 9 5 2 2 8:5 17
3 Stockport County 9 5 1 3 20:11 16
4 Huddersfield 9 4 4 1 16:9 16
5 Cambridge Utd 9 4 4 1 14:11 16
6 Reading 9 4 3 2 22:11 15
7 Sheffield Wed 8 4 3 1 15:8 15
8 Oxford Utd 7 4 2 1 15:8 14
9 Stevenage 8 3 3 2 12:8 12
10 Burton 10 3 3 4 14:16 12
11 AFC Wimbledon 9 3 3 3 7:10 12
12 Leyton Orient 9 3 2 4 13:11 11
13 Luton 8 3 2 3 16:15 11
14 Mansfield 8 3 2 3 12:14 11
15 Wycombe 9 2 4 3 14:20 10
16 Doncaster 8 2 3 3 9:9 9
17 Leicester 8 2 3 3 10:14 9
18 Blackpool 8 2 2 4 13:14 8
19 Barnsley 8 2 2 4 8:15 8
20 Peterborough 9 2 2 5 7:14 8
21 Bromley 8 2 2 4 9:20 8
22 Notts County 8 1 4 3 8:11 7
23 Milton Keynes Dons 8 0 6 2 9:15 6
24 Wigan 8 1 1 6 5:13 4
Promotion - Championship 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two 2027/2028 (Main)